NBA games

BOS @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
109–86
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS37281727109
HOU3125161486

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home HOU
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick White S 35 23 4 2
Jayson Tatum S 33 20 6 5
Payton Pritchard 32 20 4 2
Jrue Holiday S 28 14 4 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 28 11 5 2
Luke Kornet 24 9 10 4
Neemias Queta 20 5 2 1
Drew Peterson 5 5 1 1
Jaden Springer 4 2 0 0
Jordan Walsh 9 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 35 27 3 1
Alperen Sengun S 29 14 7 3
Cam Whitmore 34 11 6 1
Dillon Brooks S 30 10 2 0
Fred VanVleet S 30 8 1 3
Jeff Green S 29 7 5 0
Steven Adams 7 6 4 1
Jock Landale 5 3 2 0
Aaron Holiday 19 0 3 0
Reed Sheppard 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
2 Jalen Green HOU
12%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
5 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
6 Al Horford BOS
8%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
33%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.8 10.6 6.0
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.5 11.0 5.1
3 Jalen Green HOU 20.2 4.1 2.9
4 Derrick White BOS 18.0 4.3 3.6
5 Dillon Brooks HOU 16.3 4.8 2.2
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 15.6 5.8 1.6
7 Fred VanVleet HOU 13.8 5.2 6.0
8 Amen Thompson HOU 13.8 8.0 2.7
9 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.5 4.6 4.3
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.8 5.9 1.7
11 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.5 3.9 3.5
12 Tari Eason HOU 8.5 6.0 1.2
13 Cam Whitmore HOU 8.3 2.9 1.0
14 Al Horford BOS 8.1 5.5 1.9
15 Sam Hauser BOS 7.6 2.5 1.2
16 Luke Kornet BOS 5.0 5.9 1.1
17 Neemias Queta BOS 4.9 3.8 0.6
18 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.9 2.2 0.8
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.9 1.3 1.1
20 Steven Adams HOU 3.4 5.0 1.0
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.3 2.0 0.6
22 Drew Peterson BOS 3.1 2.0 0.7
23 Jeff Green HOU 2.4 0.8 0.4
24 Reed Sheppard HOU 2.2 1.4 0.6
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.9 1.3 0.4
26 Jaden Springer BOS 1.9 1.0 0.5
27 Jock Landale HOU 1.5 1.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.