NBA games

ORL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
106–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL37252618106
TOR2426182997

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home TOR
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tristan da Silva S 37 25 4 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 15 1 2
Cory Joseph 17 11 0 3
Goga Bitadze S 30 11 13 7
Cole Anthony 34 9 4 11
Jonathan Isaac 13 7 4 1
Wendell Carter Jr. 18 6 9 1
Jalen Suggs S 13 6 2 1
Caleb Houstan S 24 6 3 1
Jett Howard 10 5 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jakob Poeltl S 34 25 6 2
Scottie Barnes S 37 20 9 3
Ochai Agbaji S 33 15 3 1
Immanuel Quickley S 33 11 4 11
Gradey Dick S 30 8 5 1
Kelly Olynyk 15 6 2 1
Ja'Kobe Walter 18 5 2 0
Davion Mitchell 13 3 4 2
Bruce Brown 13 2 1 1
Jamal Shead 14 2 1 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jakob Poeltl · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jakob Poeltl makes 2-foot two point shot (Immanuel Quickley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
2 Jalen Suggs ORL
12%
3 Gradey Dick TOR
12%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
6 Goga Bitadze ORL
10%
7 Ochai Agbaji TOR
9%
8 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
32%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
17%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Suggs ORL 22.8 5.1 4.1
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.3 8.0 6.3
3 Gradey Dick TOR 17.6 4.3 2.7
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 16.6 3.1 6.8
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 15.3 8.5 3.0
6 Goga Bitadze ORL 14.8 11.1 3.5
7 Tristan da Silva ORL 13.1 4.1 2.3
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 12.2 2.6 2.6
9 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 10.7 2.4 1.8
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR 10.4 3.4 1.5
11 Cole Anthony ORL 9.4 3.0 3.5
12 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.7 6.6 1.9
13 Chris Boucher TOR 7.8 3.1 1.1
14 Kelly Olynyk TOR 6.7 3.8 2.2
15 Davion Mitchell TOR 6.7 2.1 3.2
16 Jamal Shead TOR 6.5 1.8 3.5
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.2 3.9 0.9
18 Jett Howard ORL 4.6 1.5 0.8
19 Trevelin Queen ORL 4.4 1.4 1.1
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.8 1.3 0.8
21 Cory Joseph ORL 3.3 1.6 0.8
22 D.J. Carton TOR 3.2 1.4 1.1
23 Bruno Fernando TOR 3.1 2.8 0.9
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.4 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.