NBA games

CHA @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
94–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA3134171294
DET2626321498

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home DET
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 39 20 9 5
Mark Williams S 28 18 9 1
Nick Richards 17 10 4 5
Seth Curry S 24 9 3 2
Josh Green S 35 9 4 2
Tidjane Salaun 19 9 1 1
KJ Simpson 26 8 3 1
Cody Martin 20 4 7 2
Vasilije Micic S 24 4 3 5
Nick Smith Jr. 7 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 36 24 10 1
Cade Cunningham S 29 18 5 5
Malik Beasley 31 12 2 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 34 11 2 1
Jalen Duren S 25 10 14 1
Ronald Holland II 11 9 3 1
Isaiah Stewart 18 5 7 0
Ausar Thompson 14 4 5 0
Marcus Sasser 22 3 3 5
Paul Reed 5 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
15%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
14%
3 Jalen Duren DET
11%
4 Mark Williams CHA
10%
5 Vasilije Micic CHA
9%
6 Tobias Harris DET
8%
7 Josh Green CHA
8%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
9 Grant Williams CHA
8%
10 Seth Curry CHA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
37%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.3 5.9 9.9
2 Miles Bridges CHA 22.6 8.3 5.0
3 Malik Beasley DET 15.5 3.6 2.2
4 Grant Williams CHA 12.9 6.1 2.2
5 Jalen Duren DET 12.7 9.0 2.1
6 Tobias Harris DET 12.5 4.9 2.2
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 10.8 2.7 1.7
8 Mark Williams CHA 10.5 7.3 1.6
9 Vasilije Micic CHA 10.4 2.6 4.6
10 Josh Green CHA 9.5 2.9 1.6
11 Cody Martin CHA 9.5 3.9 1.9
12 Ausar Thompson DET 8.5 4.6 1.6
13 Ronald Holland II DET 7.5 2.6 1.2
14 Nick Richards CHA 6.6 6.0 1.2
15 Marcus Sasser DET 5.8 1.3 2.2
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.7 3.9 1.4
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.4 4.4 1.2
18 Seth Curry CHA 5.3 1.6 0.6
19 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 5.3 3.4 1.4
20 Paul Reed DET 5.0 3.2 1.5
21 Daniss Jenkins DET 4.3 1.8 1.2
22 KJ Simpson CHA 4.1 1.5 1.6
23 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 2.9 0.8 0.7
24 Taj Gibson CHA 1.9 2.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.