NBA games

POR @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
106–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR31202431106
LAL27332826114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home LAL
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 37 23 3 5
Deni Avdija S 36 19 10 4
Shaedon Sharpe S 37 19 5 1
Toumani Camara S 39 18 4 3
Scoot Henderson 32 12 5 8
Deandre Ayton S 21 6 6 1
Donovan Clingan 17 4 3 1
Kris Murray 16 3 5 1
Dalano Banton 5 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 36 38 3 8
Max Christie S 32 28 3 2
Austin Reaves S 36 15 8 11
Christian Koloko 19 8 8 3
Rui Hachimura S 23 6 4 3
Dalton Knecht 17 6 1 0
Shake Milton 16 4 3 0
Jaxson Hayes S 18 4 6 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 24 3 4 2
Cam Reddish 19 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaxson Hayes · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Jaxson Hayes makes 1-foot dunk (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
13%
2 LeBron James LAL
12%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
5 Deni Avdija POR
9%
6 Anfernee Simons POR
9%
7 Toumani Camara POR
7%
8 Max Christie LAL
7%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
10 Gabe Vincent LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
40%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 27.2 6.9 9.1
2 Austin Reaves LAL 23.2 5.4 7.1
3 Anfernee Simons POR 19.7 3.4 6.1
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 17.9 4.2 3.0
5 Deni Avdija POR 17.7 5.7 3.6
6 Deandre Ayton POR 15.6 10.4 2.0
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.7 5.6 1.8
8 Jerami Grant POR 12.5 4.0 2.2
9 Scoot Henderson POR 12.3 3.0 5.1
10 Max Christie LAL 10.5 2.9 1.8
11 Shake Milton LAL 10.4 2.8 2.8
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 10.0 3.7 1.6
13 Toumani Camara POR 8.8 6.3 1.4
14 Dalano Banton POR 7.6 2.2 2.5
15 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.5 3.6 1.3
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.1 4.5 1.2
17 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.0 2.0 1.7
18 Donovan Clingan POR 5.4 5.9 1.2
19 Robert Williams III POR 5.4 5.2 0.9
20 Cam Reddish LAL 5.1 2.4 1.3
21 Jabari Walker POR 3.7 2.8 0.6
22 Duop Reath POR 3.3 1.3 0.5
23 Kris Murray POR 2.7 1.5 0.8
24 Rayan Rupert POR 2.7 1.2 0.9
25 Bronny James LAL 2.4 1.0 0.4
26 Christian Koloko LAL 2.0 2.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.