NBA games

PHI @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
105–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI19332627105
GS35333536139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home GS
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 31 28 14 2
Paul George S 32 19 2 0
Tyrese Maxey S 32 14 3 6
Guerschon Yabusele 31 13 6 2
Ricky Council IV 27 12 2 1
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 15 6 1 2
Justin Edwards 9 4 0 1
Eric Gordon 14 3 1 0
Reggie Jackson 8 2 1 1
Caleb Martin S 22 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 30 30 6 10
Jonathan Kuminga 25 20 5 5
Draymond Green S 31 15 6 7
Andrew Wiggins S 26 15 7 4
Dennis Schroder S 25 15 4 6
Moses Moody 15 12 2 0
Lindy Waters III 16 10 2 1
Kyle Anderson 8 8 1 0
Kevon Looney 8 6 2 1
Buddy Hield 21 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
18%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
3 Joel Embiid PHI
9%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
5 Paul George PHI
8%
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
8%
7 Dennis Schroder GS
8%
8 Kyle Anderson GS
6%
9 Kyle Lowry PHI
6%
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
25%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.3 4.3 6.7
2 Joel Embiid PHI 25.4 7.8 4.2
3 Stephen Curry GS 21.0 3.9 6.1
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 21.0 6.6 3.2
5 Paul George PHI 18.3 6.2 4.4
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.0 4.8 2.2
7 Dennis Schroder GS 13.0 2.6 4.8
8 Draymond Green GS 10.1 5.9 5.1
9 Caleb Martin PHI 9.5 3.8 1.6
10 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 9.4 7.8 2.0
11 Buddy Hield GS 9.2 3.2 1.2
12 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 9.0 3.7 1.5
13 Ricky Council IV PHI 7.7 3.2 0.9
14 Moses Moody GS 5.9 1.6 0.8
15 Eric Gordon PHI 5.7 1.7 1.3
16 Lindy Waters III GS 4.7 2.7 1.2
17 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.6 1.9 1.6
18 Kyle Anderson GS 4.4 2.2 1.3
19 Justin Edwards PHI 4.0 1.8 0.6
20 Kyle Lowry PHI 3.8 1.9 1.7
21 Kevon Looney GS 3.7 4.6 1.3
22 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 2.9 1.2 0.9
23 Adem Bona PHI 2.5 2.5 0.5
24 Pat Spencer GS 2.0 1.1 1.2
25 Gui Santos GS 1.8 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.