NBA games

LAC @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
98–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC3022202698
OKC22264226116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home OKC
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amir Coffey S 35 26 3 2
Mo Bamba 16 12 8 0
Ivica Zubac S 23 11 9 2
Kevin Porter Jr. 24 11 3 3
Jordan Miller 23 10 4 5
Kris Dunn S 28 8 2 5
Kai Jones 7 6 3 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 23 6 6 1
Norman Powell S 28 6 1 2
Bones Hyland 7 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 29 3 8
Jalen Williams S 30 18 3 4
Ajay Mitchell 25 11 2 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 23 11 9 6
Isaiah Joe 18 9 2 0
Cason Wallace 17 9 2 1
Luguentz Dort S 23 9 1 0
Aaron Wiggins S 28 9 4 2
Kenrich Williams 15 7 1 2
Jaylin Williams 19 2 7 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
19%
2 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
13%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
4 Norman Powell LAC
12%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
10 Amir Coffey LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
87%
Jumper
5%
Layup
6%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.1 5.7 6.2
2 Norman Powell LAC 22.9 4.4 3.4
3 Jalen Williams OKC 20.3 5.8 5.5
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.5 11.9 2.6
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 14.4 11.4 3.1
6 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 12.2 4.3 3.6
7 Amir Coffey LAC 10.1 3.0 1.3
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.4 4.6 1.4
9 Kris Dunn LAC 9.1 3.1 2.8
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.0 3.5 1.2
11 Bones Hyland LAC 7.4 1.8 1.5
12 Cason Wallace OKC 7.3 3.7 2.6
13 Ajay Mitchell OKC 6.8 2.9 1.6
14 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.5 3.1 1.2
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.2 2.1 0.9
16 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.1 2.4 1.0
17 Jordan Miller LAC 5.1 2.3 1.2
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.9 2.1 1.9
19 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.6 3.0 1.5
20 Kobe Brown LAC 3.8 2.3 0.9
21 Mo Bamba LAC 2.8 3.2 0.5
22 Kai Jones LAC 2.7 2.1 0.6
23 Dillon Jones OKC 2.3 1.2 0.5
24 Ousmane Dieng OKC 1.7 1.5 0.5
25 Branden Carlson OKC 1.5 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.