NBA games

BKN @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
113–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN30362819113
MIL23313125110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home MIL
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 39 26 5 0
Cam Thomas 22 24 7 2
Nic Claxton S 33 16 11 2
Jalen Wilson S 37 13 4 1
D'Angelo Russell S 28 11 3 12
Keon Johnson S 28 9 9 1
Ziaire Williams 19 8 6 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 20 6 6 4
Tyrese Martin 15 0 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 27 13 7
Damian Lillard S 40 23 3 7
Bobby Portis 28 15 8 0
Khris Middleton S 24 12 3 2
Gary Trent Jr. 21 10 2 0
Taurean Prince 18 8 3 2
Brook Lopez S 23 7 3 1
Ryan Rollins 19 4 2 1
Andre Jackson Jr. S 14 2 2 0
Pat Connaughton 10 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keon Johnson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Keon Johnson makes 1-foot layup (Nic Claxton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
15%
2 Brook Lopez MIL
12%
3 Damian Lillard MIL
11%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
5 Khris Middleton MIL
11%
6 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
7 Ziaire Williams BKN
8%
8 Keon Johnson BKN
8%
9 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
10 Noah Clowney BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
87%
Jumper
3%
Layup
6%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.7 11.9 6.9
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.2 4.2 7.5
3 Cam Thomas BKN 23.4 4.0 4.0
4 Cameron Johnson BKN 21.9 4.5 3.8
5 Bobby Portis MIL 18.9 8.4 4.0
6 Khris Middleton MIL 14.9 4.2 5.9
7 Brook Lopez MIL 14.3 4.9 1.7
8 D'Angelo Russell BKN 13.3 3.4 4.6
9 Keon Johnson BKN 11.5 3.4 1.5
10 Noah Clowney BKN 10.8 3.9 1.2
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.7 2.6 1.4
12 Nic Claxton BKN 10.6 7.6 1.7
13 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.6 2.7 2.1
14 Ziaire Williams BKN 8.6 4.1 1.4
15 Tyrese Martin BKN 6.8 3.8 1.6
16 Trendon Watford BKN 6.6 2.3 1.0
17 Taurean Prince MIL 6.5 2.8 1.6
18 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.3 5.9 0.9
19 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.9 2.6 1.4
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.5 2.8 1.6
21 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.0 1.7 1.0
22 Delon Wright MIL 3.0 1.7 1.4
23 Reece Beekman BKN 2.3 1.1 0.7
24 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 1.5 0.7 0.3
25 Stanley Umude MIL 1.4 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.