NBA games

BOS @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
118–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS28342927118
MIN35163430115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MIN
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 38 33 8 9
Derrick White S 37 26 2 2
Sam Hauser S 27 15 3 2
Jrue Holiday S 39 11 3 8
Payton Pritchard 25 9 2 4
Al Horford S 35 9 5 4
Neemias Queta 22 8 5 0
Luke Kornet 11 7 3 1
Jordan Walsh 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 39 27 8 7
Naz Reid 26 20 5 3
Jaden McDaniels S 35 19 8 2
Anthony Edwards S 36 15 4 6
Donte DiVincenzo 29 12 3 3
Josh Minott 11 7 1 0
Rudy Gobert S 28 6 7 0
Mike Conley S 19 5 2 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 17 4 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
18%
2 Julius Randle MIN
11%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Al Horford BOS
8%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
9 Derrick White BOS
8%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
18%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.6 11.2 5.5
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.6 5.8 5.3
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 22.0 6.2 4.4
4 Julius Randle MIN 19.8 7.2 5.5
5 Derrick White BOS 16.1 4.4 3.8
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.4 5.2 4.6
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.0 4.5 3.5
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.9 3.8 3.0
9 Naz Reid MIN 11.7 4.8 1.9
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.0 6.5 1.6
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.9 9.3 1.2
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.1 3.0 2.2
13 Al Horford BOS 8.6 5.4 2.1
14 Mike Conley MIN 8.0 2.5 3.9
15 Sam Hauser BOS 7.7 2.7 1.3
16 Luke Kornet BOS 5.7 6.6 1.2
17 Neemias Queta BOS 4.0 3.8 0.6
18 Josh Minott MIN 3.9 1.8 0.8
19 Drew Peterson BOS 3.7 2.2 0.8
20 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.6 2.1 0.7
21 Leonard Miller MIN 3.0 2.5 0.4
22 Joe Ingles MIN 2.8 1.4 1.8
23 Daishen Nix MIN 2.6 0.9 0.8
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.4 1.5 0.5
25 Jaden Springer BOS 2.4 1.4 0.6
26 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 1.4 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.