NBA games

IND @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
128–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND38284121128
MIA25253332115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIA
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 35 33 5 15
Myles Turner S 35 21 5 2
Pascal Siakam S 32 18 11 4
Obi Toppin 20 12 6 0
Bennedict Mathurin S 30 12 2 1
Jarace Walker 13 12 1 1
T.J. McConnell 19 8 1 4
Andrew Nembhard S 29 6 6 6
Ben Sheppard 20 3 2 1
Thomas Bryant 7 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kel'el Ware 21 25 0 1
Bam Adebayo S 25 20 8 2
Tyler Herro S 36 17 3 3
Terry Rozier 30 16 5 7
Jimmy Butler III S 27 9 2 4
Nikola Jovic 25 8 2 5
Duncan Robinson S 18 6 1 4
Haywood Highsmith S 18 6 4 2
Keshad Johnson 12 5 6 1
Alec Burks 9 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jimmy Butler makes 5-foot two point shot (Duncan Robinson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
5 Myles Turner IND
9%
6 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
7 Tyler Herro MIA
7%
8 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
9 Terry Rozier MIA
7%
10 Duncan Robinson MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
28%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 25.0 5.7 5.8
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.0 10.5 4.4
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.8 4.5 8.6
4 Pascal Siakam IND 18.7 8.4 3.1
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA 17.2 6.1 4.6
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 14.8 5.7 2.2
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 14.5 4.3 4.9
8 Myles Turner IND 14.0 6.7 1.7
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 13.0 3.1 3.1
10 Terry Rozier MIA 11.4 4.7 1.8
11 T.J. McConnell IND 10.8 3.3 4.7
12 Obi Toppin IND 9.8 4.6 1.8
13 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.7 3.6 2.0
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.6 3.3 2.3
15 Jarace Walker IND 8.0 2.9 1.2
16 Aaron Nesmith IND 7.8 3.1 1.1
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.3 3.8 1.4
18 Ben Sheppard IND 6.0 3.1 1.1
19 Alec Burks MIA 5.7 2.2 0.8
20 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.2 2.3 1.1
21 Kel'el Ware MIA 4.8 3.5 0.6
22 Thomas Bryant IND 4.5 3.1 0.5
23 Josh Christopher MIA 4.3 1.3 2.1
24 Kevin Love MIA 4.0 2.7 1.0
25 Johnny Furphy IND 2.9 1.7 0.4
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.4 1.1 0.3
27 James Johnson IND 1.5 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.