NBA games

PHI @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
107–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI30273218107
SAC25322333113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home SAC
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 36 30 8 5
Tyrese Maxey S 42 27 2 7
Eric Gordon 27 14 1 3
Caleb Martin S 39 12 7 3
Andre Drummond 20 10 9 2
Guerschon Yabusele S 30 8 1 3
Ricky Council IV 10 3 4 0
Reggie Jackson 13 3 2 0
Justin Edwards 5 0 0 0
Kyle Lowry S 17 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 38 35 3 4
Malik Monk S 32 20 2 6
DeMar DeRozan S 32 18 5 1
Domantas Sabonis S 37 17 21 7
Trey Lyles 31 12 7 2
Keon Ellis S 38 9 1 2
Kevin Huerter 18 2 5 0
Alex Len 6 0 1 2
Doug McDermott 9 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
DeMar DeRozan · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"DeMar DeRozan makes 9-foot two point shot (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
17%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
3 Malik Monk SAC
13%
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
5 Paul George PHI
12%
6 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
8 Caleb Martin PHI
8%
9 Kyle Lowry PHI
0%
10 Justin Edwards PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
28%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.7 4.1 6.3
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.6 5.0 7.6
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.5 15.6 6.2
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 18.5 3.9 3.7
5 Malik Monk SAC 17.5 4.9 5.6
6 Paul George PHI 17.1 5.8 5.0
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.3 7.0 2.1
8 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 9.5 3.7 1.6
9 Kevin Huerter SAC 9.5 3.6 1.9
10 Caleb Martin PHI 8.1 3.5 1.4
11 Ricky Council IV PHI 8.0 3.7 0.9
12 Trey Lyles SAC 7.7 4.0 1.2
13 Keon Ellis SAC 5.8 2.8 1.4
14 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.6 1.8 1.6
15 Justin Edwards PHI 4.1 1.8 0.6
16 Andre Drummond PHI 3.9 6.0 0.6
17 Eric Gordon PHI 3.4 1.0 0.8
18 Isaac Jones SAC 3.4 1.9 0.5
19 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 3.3 1.4 0.9
20 Adem Bona PHI 3.0 2.6 0.5
21 Doug McDermott SAC 2.9 0.6 0.4
22 Jae Crowder SAC 2.9 1.8 0.5
23 Isaiah Crawford SAC 2.9 1.5 0.6
24 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.7 1.5 1.4
25 Alex Len SAC 2.6 2.0 1.0
26 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 2.5 0.8 0.7
27 Colby Jones SAC 2.4 1.7 0.6
28 Orlando Robinson SAC 1.5 0.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.