NBA games

ATL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
120–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL33382425120
DEN40344124139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home DEN
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 30 30 4 9
De'Andre Hunter 26 20 4 3
Vit Krejci 28 14 6 5
Zaccharie Risacher S 32 13 3 2
David Roddy 17 10 1 2
Dyson Daniels S 30 9 5 6
Garrison Mathews S 29 9 5 3
Onyeka Okongwu 24 9 7 2
Clint Capela S 20 4 7 1
Dominick Barlow 4 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 30 23 17 15
Michael Porter Jr. S 24 21 4 2
Jamal Murray S 36 21 3 2
Russell Westbrook S 26 16 2 11
Christian Braun S 32 15 3 4
Julian Strawther 30 13 6 2
Peyton Watson 24 11 0 1
DeAndre Jordan 15 8 7 3
Jalen Pickett 13 7 1 4
Spencer Jones 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
3 Trae Young ATL
10%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
5 Russell Westbrook DEN
10%
6 Clint Capela ATL
9%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
8 Christian Braun DEN
8%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
10 Vit Krejci ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
28%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.9 11.6 9.0
2 Trae Young ATL 26.5 3.2 11.1
3 Jamal Murray DEN 24.6 4.6 6.9
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.5 10.7 5.6
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 21.8 4.1 2.1
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 19.6 5.5 3.0
7 Russell Westbrook DEN 15.7 5.9 7.6
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.7 4.9 4.6
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.7 6.5 1.6
10 Christian Braun DEN 12.6 4.7 2.4
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 11.6 2.9 2.1
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.9 3.2 1.4
13 Julian Strawther DEN 8.9 2.6 1.4
14 Clint Capela ATL 8.6 7.8 1.3
15 Peyton Watson DEN 8.3 3.5 1.6
16 Garrison Mathews ATL 6.3 1.8 1.2
17 Vit Krejci ATL 4.8 2.5 2.5
18 Dario Saric DEN 4.6 3.1 1.3
19 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.9 2.4 0.8
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.7 4.4 0.9
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.9 1.1 1.8
22 David Roddy ATL 2.8 1.1 0.7
23 Dominick Barlow ATL 2.1 1.0 0.5
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.7 0.7 0.4
25 Spencer Jones DEN 1.6 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.