NBA games

DAL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
99–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL3022232499
HOU24372821110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home HOU
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quentin Grimes 30 17 5 3
Kyrie Irving S 37 16 7 2
Klay Thompson S 32 16 5 1
Jaden Hardy 21 11 0 3
Spencer Dinwiddie S 24 8 1 2
Dereck Lively II S 20 8 6 6
P.J. Washington S 16 6 3 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 7 6 3 0
Maxi Kleber 30 5 2 1
Daniel Gafford 12 4 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 37 23 6 4
Jalen Green S 38 22 5 0
Dillon Brooks S 40 19 6 1
Cam Whitmore 24 18 3 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 23 12 2 0
Fred VanVleet S 42 5 5 7
Steven Adams 7 4 4 0
Aaron Holiday 15 4 1 1
Jae'Sean Tate 15 3 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dereck Lively II · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Dereck Lively II makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
13%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
10%
4 Dereck Lively II DAL
7%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
7%
6 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
6%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
6%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
6%
9 P.J. Washington DAL
6%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
38%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.4 4.2 4.2
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.8 10.9 5.4
3 Jalen Green HOU 20.4 4.1 3.3
4 Dillon Brooks HOU 15.8 4.6 2.3
5 Amen Thompson HOU 14.6 8.1 2.9
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 14.3 4.9 5.8
7 Klay Thompson DAL 14.1 3.7 2.2
8 P.J. Washington DAL 12.8 5.8 2.1
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.8 6.2 1.8
10 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 12.4 3.1 3.5
11 Naji Marshall DAL 11.4 3.5 1.5
12 Quentin Grimes DAL 9.9 4.2 1.8
13 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.6 5.4 1.1
14 Tari Eason HOU 9.0 6.1 1.3
15 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.0 8.1 2.3
16 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.8 2.6 0.9
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.0 1.9 1.0
18 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.0 3.5 1.2
19 Brandon Williams DAL 4.2 1.3 0.9
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.9 1.2 1.1
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.7 2.3 0.8
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.2 2.0 0.6
23 Steven Adams HOU 2.9 4.7 1.0
24 Jeff Green HOU 2.9 1.0 0.4
25 Jazian Gortman DAL 2.8 1.2 0.6
26 Reed Sheppard HOU 2.7 1.5 0.6
27 Dwight Powell DAL 2.5 1.9 0.8
28 Jock Landale HOU 1.9 2.1 0.6
29 Markieff Morris DAL 1.1 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.