NBA games

BKN @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
113–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN33312722113
TOR26392936130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home TOR
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 28 24 1 3
D'Angelo Russell 26 22 2 8
Keon Johnson S 29 17 1 0
Nic Claxton S 30 16 10 4
Day'Ron Sharpe 18 11 8 2
Jalen Wilson 31 10 1 0
Noah Clowney S 28 5 3 0
Maxwell Lewis 1 3 0 0
Ben Simmons S 25 2 2 6
Tyrese Martin 20 2 4 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 38 33 13 5
Gradey Dick S 37 22 3 2
Immanuel Quickley S 32 21 4 15
Ochai Agbaji S 37 14 3 2
Jakob Poeltl S 34 12 9 2
Ja'Kobe Walter 18 11 3 3
Jamal Shead 18 7 0 5
Kelly Olynyk 14 7 2 1
Chris Boucher 5 3 1 0
Davion Mitchell 6 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ochai Agbaji · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Ochai Agbaji makes dunk (Immanuel Quickley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
3 Gradey Dick TOR
10%
4 Ochai Agbaji TOR
9%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
7 Ben Simmons BKN
8%
8 Keon Johnson BKN
8%
9 Cameron Johnson BKN
7%
10 Davion Mitchell TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
33%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 25.9 4.1 4.5
2 Cameron Johnson BKN 24.3 4.7 4.0
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.4 7.2 7.5
4 Gradey Dick TOR 16.1 4.2 2.4
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 15.1 2.7 5.8
6 D'Angelo Russell BKN 14.9 3.4 5.0
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.9 8.7 3.0
8 Noah Clowney BKN 11.8 4.1 1.4
9 Nic Claxton BKN 11.8 7.8 1.8
10 Keon Johnson BKN 11.4 3.8 1.9
11 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.7 2.9 2.6
12 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 10.6 2.6 1.9
13 Ochai Agbaji TOR 10.1 3.2 1.6
14 Ben Simmons BKN 8.7 4.7 7.2
15 Chris Boucher TOR 8.7 3.6 1.2
16 Tyrese Martin BKN 7.6 3.7 1.7
17 Davion Mitchell TOR 7.5 2.1 3.7
18 Kelly Olynyk TOR 7.1 4.0 2.4
19 Jamal Shead TOR 6.3 1.8 3.4
20 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.2 5.5 1.0
21 Jamison Battle TOR 5.9 1.8 1.2
22 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.8 4.7 1.7
23 Bruno Fernando TOR 3.8 3.1 1.1
24 D.J. Carton TOR 3.3 1.5 1.2
25 Ulrich Chomche TOR 2.4 1.5 0.8
26 Reece Beekman BKN 1.9 0.8 0.7
27 Garrett Temple TOR 1.9 1.0 0.8
28 Maxwell Lewis BKN 1.7 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.