NBA games

UTAH @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
103–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH25213324103
NY24323132119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home NY
11% 89%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Clarkson 32 25 4 1
Collin Sexton S 31 25 4 5
Lauri Markkanen S 35 16 10 2
Keyonte George S 36 15 1 5
Johnny Juzang S 23 10 5 0
Walker Kessler S 30 6 8 5
Brice Sensabaugh 15 4 4 1
Kyle Filipowski 11 2 6 2
Isaiah Collier 11 0 2 2
Svi Mykhailiuk 16 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 37 31 21 4
Mikal Bridges S 44 27 1 0
OG Anunoby S 41 22 3 2
Josh Hart S 45 15 14 12
Precious Achiuwa 13 12 3 0
Cameron Payne S 36 8 3 9
Landry Shamet 11 2 1 0
Tyler Kolek 12 2 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Josh Hart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
2 Mikal Bridges NY
12%
3 Josh Hart NY
10%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
9%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
9%
7 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
8 Walker Kessler UTAH
8%
9 OG Anunoby NY
7%
10 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
43%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.3 3.4 7.9
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 25.5 13.1 4.9
3 Mikal Bridges NY 21.5 3.2 4.0
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 19.5 3.2 5.6
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 19.5 3.6 4.5
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 18.7 5.6 2.1
7 Josh Hart NY 18.3 7.9 5.5
8 Keyonte George UTAH 17.7 4.3 6.0
9 OG Anunoby NY 13.9 4.9 2.3
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.4 10.6 1.9
11 Miles McBride NY 8.6 2.8 3.4
12 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.1 2.8 2.2
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.8 2.0 1.4
14 Johnny Juzang UTAH 7.6 2.6 1.0
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.8 6.0 1.4
16 Landry Shamet NY 6.6 1.8 1.2
17 Isaiah Collier UTAH 5.6 2.8 3.8
18 Cameron Payne NY 5.3 1.4 1.5
19 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 5.2 3.3 1.7
20 Micah Potter UTAH 4.7 4.2 1.2
21 Patty Mills UTAH 4.3 1.4 1.3
22 Drew Eubanks UTAH 4.1 3.0 0.8
23 Tyler Kolek NY 3.0 1.1 0.9
24 Matt Ryan NY 3.0 0.9 0.8
25 Jericho Sims NY 3.0 2.7 0.9
26 Jacob Toppin NY 2.6 1.1 0.8
27 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.3 1.3 0.6
28 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.1 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.