NO @ MIA
NBA
Kaseya Center
·Final
108–119
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 24 | 27 | 25 | 32 | 108 |
| MIA | 36 | 20 | 34 | 29 | 119 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
MIA
21%
79%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III S | 39 | 34 | 4 | 3 |
| CJ McCollum S | 34 | 22 | 4 | 5 |
| Brandon Boston | 20 | 14 | 4 | 1 |
| Dejounte Murray S | 31 | 12 | 3 | 7 |
| Herbert Jones S | 39 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 20 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| Yves Missi S | 29 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| Javonte Green | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Daniel Theis | 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Bam Adebayo ·
Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 13-foot jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
CJ McCollum
NO
13%
2
Bam Adebayo
MIA
12%
3
Jimmy Butler III
MIA
10%
4
Dejounte Murray
NO
9%
5
Tyler Herro
MIA
9%
6
Yves Missi
NO
8%
7
Trey Murphy III
NO
8%
8
Terry Rozier
MIA
7%
9
Herbert Jones
NO
6%
10
Haywood Highsmith
MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
26%
Layup
25%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Herro | MIA | 25.7 | 6.5 | 6.4 |
| 2 | CJ McCollum | NO | 22.2 | 4.3 | 5.0 |
| 3 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 21.9 | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| 4 | Bam Adebayo | MIA | 21.2 | 10.8 | 4.6 |
| 5 | Dejounte Murray | NO | 20.4 | 7.3 | 8.8 |
| 6 | Jimmy Butler III | MIA | 19.0 | 5.6 | 4.9 |
| 7 | Herbert Jones | NO | 13.8 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
| 8 | Duncan Robinson | MIA | 12.9 | 2.9 | 3.6 |
| 9 | Terry Rozier | MIA | 12.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 |
| 10 | Yves Missi | NO | 10.4 | 10.0 | 1.4 |
| 11 | Brandon Boston | NO | 9.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 12 | Nikola Jovic | MIA | 8.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| 13 | Haywood Highsmith | MIA | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 14 | Jaime Jaquez Jr. | MIA | 7.8 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| 15 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 7.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 16 | Alec Burks | MIA | 6.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 17 | Pelle Larsson | MIA | 5.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 18 | Javonte Green | NO | 5.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| 19 | Josh Christopher | MIA | 4.8 | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 20 | Kevin Love | MIA | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 21 | Daniel Theis | NO | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
| 22 | Antonio Reeves | NO | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 23 | Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | NO | 4.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 |
| 24 | Kel'el Ware | MIA | 3.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| 25 | Isaiah Stevens | MIA | 3.8 | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| 26 | Jamal Cain | NO | 3.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| 27 | Keshad Johnson | MIA | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.