NBA games

CHI @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
107–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI25262927107
WSH27283634125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home WSH
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 31 32 1 3
Coby White S 31 17 2 6
Nikola Vucevic S 32 12 14 6
Patrick Williams S 23 7 3 3
Talen Horton-Tucker 16 7 3 0
Josh Giddey S 26 6 6 2
Dalen Terry 19 6 1 3
Matas Buzelis 14 5 4 0
Lonzo Ball 22 5 8 4
Julian Phillips 8 4 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 28 30 3 2
Justin Champagnie S 21 15 2 1
Jonas Valanciunas 22 14 6 6
Corey Kispert 29 13 2 2
Malcolm Brogdon 28 12 4 6
Alex Sarr S 25 11 10 5
Bub Carrington S 31 11 4 6
Kyshawn George 20 9 4 0
Kyle Kuzma 22 5 5 5
Anthony Gill 2 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bub Carrington · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Carlton Carrington makes 24-foot three pointer (Bilal Coulibaly assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
2 Coby White CHI
10%
3 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
5 Malcolm Brogdon WSH
9%
6 Zach LaVine CHI
8%
7 Justin Champagnie WSH
8%
8 Josh Giddey CHI
7%
9 Patrick Williams CHI
7%
10 Alex Sarr WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
30%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 24.4 4.9 5.6
2 Jordan Poole WSH 22.9 4.0 5.8
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.1 10.5 3.9
4 Coby White CHI 19.9 3.8 5.6
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 18.0 6.2 5.4
6 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 17.9 4.8 5.1
7 Kyle Kuzma WSH 16.6 5.2 2.1
8 Josh Giddey CHI 15.5 8.6 7.8
9 Alex Sarr WSH 14.0 6.1 2.2
10 Justin Champagnie WSH 13.7 8.3 1.7
11 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 12.4 9.4 2.7
12 Corey Kispert WSH 11.7 3.7 1.7
13 Bub Carrington WSH 10.6 4.7 3.5
14 Patrick Williams CHI 10.4 3.5 1.9
15 Jalen Smith CHI 8.7 6.2 1.1
16 Kyshawn George WSH 7.2 3.9 1.7
17 Jared Butler WSH 7.2 1.9 2.7
18 Lonzo Ball CHI 6.6 3.5 3.6
19 Matas Buzelis CHI 6.0 3.5 1.2
20 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.2 2.5 1.5
21 Dalen Terry CHI 5.1 1.9 1.2
22 Julian Phillips CHI 5.1 2.0 0.8
23 Johnny Davis WSH 4.5 2.3 1.0
24 Jevon Carter CHI 4.1 1.3 1.0
25 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 3.7 1.6 0.6
26 Anthony Gill WSH 3.5 2.2 0.7
27 Adama Sanogo CHI 3.1 2.7 0.4
28 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.8 2.3 0.3
29 E.J. Liddell CHI 2.7 1.2 0.8
30 Chris Duarte CHI 2.2 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.