NBA games

ORL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
96–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2128262196
DET31341921105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home DET
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Suggs S 34 24 4 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 21 2 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 34 15 8 1
Jett Howard 15 9 1 0
Cole Anthony 13 8 2 1
Goga Bitadze S 23 8 3 6
Jonathan Isaac 15 4 2 1
Gary Harris 15 4 2 0
Caleb Houstan 27 3 2 1
Tristan da Silva S 23 0 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 27 22 1 4
Cade Cunningham S 34 19 8 9
Jalen Duren S 27 18 11 1
Tobias Harris S 35 17 8 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 33 12 2 3
Isaiah Stewart 21 7 8 3
Ausar Thompson 25 6 5 1
Malik Beasley 22 2 6 1
Ronald Holland II 10 2 0 1
Marcus Sasser 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
15%
2 Jalen Suggs ORL
13%
3 Goga Bitadze ORL
11%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
5 Jalen Duren DET
10%
6 Tristan da Silva ORL
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
8 Tobias Harris DET
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
36%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.7 5.9 9.2
2 Jalen Suggs ORL 21.8 4.6 4.4
3 Jaden Ivey DET 17.0 4.0 3.6
4 Goga Bitadze ORL 14.5 10.8 2.9
5 Malik Beasley DET 13.0 3.2 1.8
6 Tristan da Silva ORL 12.8 3.7 2.1
7 Tobias Harris DET 10.4 4.5 1.9
8 Jalen Duren DET 10.3 7.0 1.9
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.1 2.3 2.5
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.7 2.6 1.3
11 Cole Anthony ORL 9.0 2.7 3.7
12 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.1 6.1 2.0
13 Ausar Thompson DET 7.9 3.9 1.3
14 Ronald Holland II DET 6.8 2.4 1.0
15 Marcus Sasser DET 6.6 1.2 2.4
16 Paul Reed DET 5.3 3.2 1.5
17 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 5.3 3.4 1.5
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 4.9 3.6 1.0
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.6 3.6 0.8
20 Gary Harris ORL 4.5 1.2 0.8
21 Jett Howard ORL 3.5 1.2 0.8
22 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.1 0.9 0.7
23 Cory Joseph ORL 2.8 1.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.