NBA games

CLE @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
122–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE34242935122
LAL30232532110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home LAL
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 31 27 14 1
Donovan Mitchell S 32 26 4 4
Evan Mobley S 32 20 6 1
Max Strus 26 15 3 4
Darius Garland S 32 14 2 14
Georges Niang 18 9 3 1
Ty Jerome 14 5 6 2
Dean Wade S 24 3 9 2
Caris LeVert 23 3 1 2
Sam Merrill 8 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 38 35 9 10
Anthony Davis S 37 28 13 4
LeBron James S 34 23 4 7
Rui Hachimura S 30 7 5 0
Shake Milton 10 6 2 0
Max Christie S 28 5 1 2
Dalton Knecht 22 4 3 1
Dorian Finney-Smith 20 2 2 2
Cam Reddish 19 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
2 LeBron James LAL
11%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
6 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
7 Darius Garland CLE
7%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
9 Shake Milton LAL
7%
10 Max Christie LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
23%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 25.3 7.4 8.2
2 Anthony Davis LAL 23.6 11.8 4.2
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 22.9 4.3 6.2
4 Darius Garland CLE 22.8 3.6 6.4
5 Evan Mobley CLE 21.0 8.0 3.6
6 Austin Reaves LAL 19.5 4.8 6.0
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.1 5.7 1.7
8 Caris LeVert CLE 12.7 3.0 3.6
9 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.5 9.3 2.4
10 Shake Milton LAL 11.7 3.2 2.9
11 Max Christie LAL 10.9 3.4 1.7
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 10.1 3.8 1.4
13 Georges Niang CLE 8.4 4.4 2.1
14 Dean Wade CLE 7.7 6.0 1.5
15 Sam Merrill CLE 7.7 2.5 1.5
16 Ty Jerome CLE 6.9 2.3 2.9
17 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.8 3.5 1.2
18 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.4 2.3 1.8
19 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.7 4.4 1.0
20 Max Strus CLE 5.2 3.1 1.4
21 JT Thor CLE 4.9 2.1 0.6
22 Cam Reddish LAL 4.9 2.1 1.3
23 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.4 1.6 1.4
24 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.3 3.3 0.6
25 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.9 1.9 0.6
26 Bronny James LAL 1.8 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.