NBA games

MEM @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
117–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM36332226117
PHX26293126112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home PHX
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 38 38 12 4
Desmond Bane S 37 31 5 7
Luke Kennard 29 17 7 4
Jaylen Wells S 32 11 6 2
Jay Huff 19 8 2 0
John Konchar S 36 7 12 4
Cam Spencer 16 2 4 3
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 22 2 2 3
Colin Castleton 13 1 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 39 29 10 6
Tyus Jones S 30 21 4 2
Devin Booker S 30 16 4 9
Mason Plumlee S 27 12 8 3
Monte Morris 20 12 3 2
Josh Okogie 28 9 2 0
Ryan Dunn 35 8 9 3
Bradley Beal S 12 3 1 2
Oso Ighodaro 17 2 2 1
Damion Lee 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
13%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
13%
3 Devin Booker PHX
10%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
5 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
7%
7 Mason Plumlee PHX
7%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
9 Tyus Jones PHX
6%
10 John Konchar MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
31%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 27.8 6.5 5.1
2 Devin Booker PHX 25.5 3.7 6.5
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 22.2 6.3 3.2
4 Bradley Beal PHX 22.1 4.7 4.0
5 Desmond Bane MEM 19.6 5.4 6.5
6 Tyus Jones PHX 14.4 3.0 5.3
7 Santi Aldama MEM 11.3 6.4 1.8
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.7 8.6 3.0
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 10.3 3.1 4.6
10 Jaylen Wells MEM 9.7 2.6 1.6
11 Jay Huff MEM 7.8 2.9 1.1
12 Luke Kennard MEM 7.4 2.5 2.1
13 Brandon Clarke MEM 7.4 5.9 1.1
14 Jake LaRavia MEM 7.3 3.6 2.1
15 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.9 3.4 1.1
16 Monte Morris PHX 5.7 2.0 2.1
17 Cam Spencer MEM 4.5 1.6 1.3
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.5 6.3 1.7
19 Josh Okogie PHX 4.3 2.6 0.8
20 John Konchar MEM 4.0 3.2 1.1
21 Oso Ighodaro PHX 3.6 3.1 0.9
22 Bol Bol PHX 3.2 2.0 0.5
23 Damion Lee PHX 3.0 1.0 0.7
24 Colin Castleton MEM 2.8 1.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.