NBA games

MIN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
105–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN24282330105
OKC21254324113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home OKC
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 39 20 7 2
Naz Reid 33 19 8 1
Mike Conley S 23 16 1 4
Julius Randle S 27 11 6 6
Donte DiVincenzo 30 10 4 5
Rudy Gobert S 31 8 7 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 19 8 4 1
Jaden McDaniels S 28 7 6 0
Josh Minott 10 6 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 40 3 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 32 15 10 4
Luguentz Dort S 35 14 6 2
Jalen Williams S 38 14 7 7
Isaiah Joe 13 7 0 1
Aaron Wiggins 14 7 3 1
Cason Wallace S 32 5 2 7
Kenrich Williams 15 5 2 0
Ajay Mitchell 18 3 3 0
Jaylin Williams 10 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes 14-foot step back jumpshot (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
20%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
5 Julius Randle MIN
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
9 Mike Conley MIN
6%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
29%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.0 5.9 6.2
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 22.7 6.2 4.8
3 Jalen Williams OKC 21.8 5.7 5.6
4 Julius Randle MIN 19.8 7.5 5.2
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 14.1 11.4 3.3
6 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.7 3.9 3.1
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.6 10.0 1.2
8 Naz Reid MIN 10.5 4.7 1.8
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.8 6.2 1.6
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.0 4.8 1.3
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.4 2.9 2.1
12 Mike Conley MIN 8.0 2.8 3.9
13 Cason Wallace OKC 7.4 3.8 2.1
14 Ajay Mitchell OKC 7.4 3.0 1.8
15 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.4 3.0 1.2
16 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.9 2.2 0.9
17 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.8 2.4 1.0
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.5 2.2 2.1
19 Josh Minott MIN 4.2 2.4 0.9
20 Dillon Jones OKC 3.1 1.6 0.7
21 Leonard Miller MIN 3.0 2.9 0.4
22 Joe Ingles MIN 2.7 1.5 1.7
23 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.5 1.8 0.7
24 Daishen Nix MIN 2.3 0.9 0.7
25 Branden Carlson OKC 2.3 1.7 0.6
26 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 1.3 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.