NBA games

LAC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
86–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC1726202386
SA31322831122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home SA
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 25 17 3 1
Norman Powell S 26 15 5 2
Amir Coffey 28 14 2 0
Bones Hyland 17 7 1 2
Kris Dunn S 23 7 2 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 21 6 2 0
Ivica Zubac S 22 5 7 2
Kobe Brown 12 5 0 0
Kai Jones 17 4 4 1
Jordan Miller 14 2 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 26 27 9 5
Keldon Johnson 19 17 6 1
Stephon Castle 23 15 4 4
Harrison Barnes S 25 11 4 1
Julian Champagnie 16 9 2 1
Devin Vassell S 26 8 3 3
Chris Paul S 20 7 9 4
Zach Collins 17 7 4 4
Malaki Branham 7 5 1 0
Jeremy Sochan S 15 4 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:44 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 9-foot hook shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 James Harden LAC
15%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
13%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
4 Jeremy Sochan SA
11%
5 Devin Vassell SA
9%
6 Norman Powell LAC
8%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
9 Chris Paul SA
7%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
40%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 30.3 11.6 4.1
2 Norman Powell LAC 24.0 4.2 3.5
3 James Harden LAC 23.4 4.8 6.5
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.3 11.8 2.7
5 Devin Vassell SA 15.0 4.4 3.0
6 Jeremy Sochan SA 14.4 7.9 3.0
7 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 12.6 4.2 3.5
8 Julian Champagnie SA 11.8 4.0 1.5
9 Keldon Johnson SA 10.6 4.2 1.6
10 Amir Coffey LAC 10.3 3.1 1.5
11 Harrison Barnes SA 10.3 2.6 1.5
12 Chris Paul SA 10.0 4.7 7.6
13 Stephon Castle SA 9.7 2.8 3.6
14 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.5 3.4 1.4
15 Kris Dunn LAC 9.4 3.2 3.2
16 Bones Hyland LAC 5.9 1.2 1.1
17 Charles Bassey SA 5.9 5.8 0.7
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.0 3.2 1.7
19 Jordan Miller LAC 4.9 2.0 1.1
20 Tre Jones SA 4.7 2.4 4.1
21 Kobe Brown LAC 4.2 2.8 0.9
22 Mo Bamba LAC 3.8 3.7 0.6
23 Zach Collins SA 3.7 2.6 0.9
24 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.8 2.1 0.5
25 Blake Wesley SA 2.6 0.9 1.4
26 Malaki Branham SA 1.9 0.8 1.1
27 Kai Jones LAC 1.5 1.4 0.4
28 Sidy Cissoko SA 1.3 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.