NBA games

MIL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
120–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL30233532120
IND28362721112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home IND
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 35 30 12 5
Brook Lopez S 24 16 5 3
Khris Middleton S 31 15 6 7
Bobby Portis 31 14 15 3
Gary Trent Jr. 29 14 2 1
Taurean Prince 25 9 3 2
AJ Green 16 9 2 1
Damian Lillard S 36 9 4 5
Andre Jackson Jr. S 12 4 2 0
Ryan Rollins 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin S 37 25 9 2
Pascal Siakam S 31 20 7 4
Myles Turner S 33 16 10 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 39 12 7 7
Jarace Walker 16 11 1 1
Andrew Nembhard S 32 10 2 3
T.J. McConnell 16 6 3 5
Ben Sheppard 19 5 7 0
Obi Toppin 12 4 2 2
Thomas Bryant 5 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andre Jackson Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Andre Jackson Jr. makes 3-foot two point shot (Damian Lillard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
15%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
3 Myles Turner IND
10%
4 Khris Middleton MIL
8%
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND
8%
6 Bobby Portis MIL
8%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
88%
Jumper
1%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.8 11.9 6.1
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.1 4.5 7.4
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.9 4.3 9.0
4 Pascal Siakam IND 18.5 8.4 3.0
5 Bobby Portis MIL 16.9 9.0 3.6
6 Khris Middleton MIL 14.9 4.3 5.0
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 14.3 4.1 5.0
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.5 5.4 2.1
9 Myles Turner IND 13.4 6.5 1.8
10 Brook Lopez MIL 12.4 5.0 1.4
11 T.J. McConnell IND 12.1 3.3 4.8
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.3 2.8 1.2
13 Obi Toppin IND 10.3 5.2 1.7
14 Jarace Walker IND 8.0 3.2 1.4
15 Aaron Nesmith IND 7.8 3.1 1.1
16 AJ Green MIL 7.2 2.7 1.9
17 Ryan Rollins MIL 6.3 2.9 1.5
18 Ben Sheppard IND 6.2 2.7 1.2
19 Taurean Prince MIL 5.8 2.9 1.3
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.2 3.0 1.6
21 Thomas Bryant IND 4.4 3.2 0.6
22 Pat Connaughton MIL 3.9 1.9 1.0
23 Johnny Furphy IND 3.8 2.2 0.7
24 Delon Wright MIL 3.2 1.9 1.4
25 Liam Robbins MIL 2.0 1.5 0.5
26 James Johnson IND 1.9 1.1 0.5
27 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 1.6 0.9 0.3
28 Stanley Umude MIL 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.