NBA games

TOR @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
71–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR1223181871
BOS23224535125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home BOS
7% 93%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 31 16 13 2
Jamison Battle 19 9 3 2
Davion Mitchell S 26 9 2 3
Jakob Poeltl S 30 7 13 3
Chris Boucher 14 7 2 1
Bruce Brown 19 6 2 1
Kelly Olynyk 10 5 1 0
Jamal Shead 25 5 1 3
Ja'Kobe Walter S 22 3 2 2
Ulrich Chomche 5 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 29 23 8 3
Payton Pritchard 23 19 6 4
Derrick White S 27 16 4 3
Jrue Holiday S 25 14 1 4
Sam Hauser 18 12 2 1
Jaylen Brown S 25 12 9 3
Jordan Walsh 12 10 1 2
Neemias Queta 19 8 4 0
Drew Peterson 12 5 4 2
Xavier Tillman 9 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jakob Poeltl · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:14 Q1
"Jakob Poeltl makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
15%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
5 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
6 Bruno Fernando TOR
9%
7 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
8 Al Horford BOS
8%
9 Derrick White BOS
8%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
62%
Jumper
4%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 29.3 11.7 5.9
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.7 5.2 5.8
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.1 7.1 7.3
4 Derrick White BOS 17.1 4.8 4.5
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.6 4.8 4.8
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.6 8.9 2.8
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.3 4.6 3.3
8 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 10.3 2.7 1.6
9 Al Horford BOS 10.1 5.6 2.0
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR 10.0 3.1 1.5
11 Chris Boucher TOR 8.6 3.9 1.1
12 Sam Hauser BOS 8.1 3.0 1.6
13 Kelly Olynyk TOR 7.7 4.7 2.6
14 Luke Kornet BOS 6.8 7.4 1.5
15 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 6.7 4.9 1.7
16 Davion Mitchell TOR 6.3 1.9 3.2
17 Jamal Shead TOR 6.2 1.9 3.2
18 Jamison Battle TOR 5.6 1.8 1.1
19 Drew Peterson BOS 5.1 2.5 1.0
20 Neemias Queta BOS 5.1 4.9 0.9
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.7 2.4 0.8
22 A.J. Lawson TOR 3.2 1.1 0.4
23 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.1 2.2 0.7
24 Jaden Springer BOS 2.9 1.8 0.7
25 Bruno Fernando TOR 2.7 2.4 0.9
26 Garrett Temple TOR 2.5 1.4 0.7
27 Ulrich Chomche TOR 1.6 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.