NBA games

DAL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
100–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL37231723100
SAC23332727110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home SAC
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Spencer Dinwiddie S 36 30 3 6
P.J. Washington S 38 28 4 1
Quentin Grimes S 33 11 7 3
Brandon Williams 20 10 1 2
Daniel Gafford S 28 8 6 0
Jaden Hardy S 21 8 3 0
Jazian Gortman 8 5 2 1
Maxi Kleber 29 0 4 1
Dwight Powell 17 0 5 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 9 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 35 33 6 6
Domantas Sabonis S 33 17 16 7
Malik Monk S 36 14 7 6
Trey Lyles 22 14 4 1
DeMar DeRozan S 26 14 4 2
Keon Ellis 20 7 5 0
Alex Len 7 4 8 0
Keegan Murray S 36 4 6 1
Kevin Huerter 20 3 2 1
Jordan McLaughlin 1 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Layup (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes 1-foot layup (Quentin Grimes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
14%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
5 Malik Monk SAC
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
7 Maxi Kleber DAL
8%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
7%
9 Naji Marshall DAL
7%
10 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
29%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.2 5.1 7.1
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.2 13.7 5.7
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 19.1 3.9 3.7
4 Malik Monk SAC 18.0 4.2 5.6
5 P.J. Washington DAL 12.7 5.6 2.5
6 Naji Marshall DAL 12.1 3.6 1.7
7 Keegan Murray SAC 11.8 6.6 1.3
8 Kevin Huerter SAC 10.7 3.7 2.0
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.6 6.2 1.2
10 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 10.4 3.3 3.3
11 Quentin Grimes DAL 10.3 4.4 1.9
12 Trey Lyles SAC 8.5 4.6 1.3
13 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.2 1.9 1.2
14 Keon Ellis SAC 5.6 2.5 1.3
15 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.1 3.7 1.2
16 Brandon Williams DAL 3.8 1.3 0.9
17 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.7 2.4 0.9
18 Isaac Jones SAC 3.4 1.7 0.4
19 Doug McDermott SAC 3.2 0.7 0.4
20 Dwight Powell DAL 2.8 2.0 0.9
21 Alex Len SAC 2.6 1.7 1.0
22 Jazian Gortman DAL 2.4 1.0 0.7
23 Kessler Edwards DAL 1.9 0.9 0.5
24 Isaiah Crawford SAC 1.9 1.3 0.4
25 Colby Jones SAC 1.9 1.4 0.4
26 Orlando Robinson SAC 1.9 1.0 0.7
27 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 1.5 0.7 0.5
28 Markieff Morris DAL 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.