NBA games

PHI @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
125–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI33312734125
POR31231831103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home POR
87% 13%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 36 37 9 3
Tyrese Maxey S 36 23 1 3
Guerschon Yabusele 28 16 4 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 37 15 5 2
Paul George S 23 9 6 4
Caleb Martin S 38 7 1 2
Ricky Council IV 14 7 1 0
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 5 3 2 0
Pete Nance 3 3 1 0
Reggie Jackson 18 3 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 30 25 4 4
Deni Avdija S 33 17 7 2
Shaedon Sharpe S 34 12 1 1
Toumani Camara S 34 12 10 1
Deandre Ayton S 30 12 6 3
Duop Reath 4 9 1 0
Scoot Henderson 24 6 0 7
Jabari Walker 4 5 0 0
Donovan Clingan 9 3 1 2
Kris Murray 15 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anfernee Simons · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Anfernee Simons makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
14%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
11%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
5 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
6 Paul George PHI
10%
7 Deni Avdija POR
10%
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Caleb Martin PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
37%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.5 4.4 6.7
2 Joel Embiid PHI 24.4 7.0 4.6
3 Paul George PHI 19.6 5.3 5.4
4 Anfernee Simons POR 18.7 3.2 6.2
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.0 4.3 3.1
6 Deni Avdija POR 17.2 5.0 3.8
7 Deandre Ayton POR 16.2 10.2 2.0
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.2 6.8 2.2
9 Scoot Henderson POR 12.6 3.2 5.2
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 10.2 3.9 1.9
11 Toumani Camara POR 9.4 5.9 1.5
12 Caleb Martin PHI 8.5 3.4 1.7
13 Ricky Council IV PHI 8.3 3.5 1.1
14 Dalano Banton POR 8.0 2.3 2.5
15 Donovan Clingan POR 6.0 6.6 1.1
16 Reggie Jackson PHI 5.6 1.9 1.7
17 Robert Williams III POR 5.1 4.9 0.8
18 Kyle Lowry PHI 3.7 1.8 1.8
19 Kris Murray POR 3.4 1.6 0.8
20 Jabari Walker POR 3.0 2.6 0.4
21 Rayan Rupert POR 3.0 1.3 0.8
22 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 2.6 0.8 0.9
23 Adem Bona PHI 2.0 2.1 0.4
24 Duop Reath POR 2.0 0.7 0.4
25 Bryce McGowens POR 1.2 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.