NBA games

CLE @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
11395
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE26203730113
GS2711273095

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home GS
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 29 25 3 8
Donovan Mitchell S 27 23 3 4
Jarrett Allen S 25 12 9 1
Dean Wade S 25 10 13 0
Ty Jerome 20 10 2 4
Caris LeVert 21 9 1 1
Evan Mobley S 25 7 7 1
Sam Merrill 14 5 2 0
Georges Niang 20 3 3 5
Max Strus 19 3 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Moses Moody 21 19 2 1
Jonathan Kuminga 32 18 10 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 29 16 16 2
Dennis Schroder S 30 12 4 3
Andrew Wiggins S 27 11 3 2
Stephen Curry S 29 11 2 3
Buddy Hield 19 2 3 0
Draymond Green S 25 2 8 5
Lindy Waters III 14 2 2 0
Quinten Post 5 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes 3-foot dunk (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
17%
2 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
5 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
6 Darius Garland CLE
8%
7 Dennis Schroder GS
8%
8 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
9 Kyle Anderson GS
7%
10 Draymond Green GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
28%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 22.3 4.2 6.5
2 Evan Mobley CLE 22.0 8.2 3.9
3 Darius Garland CLE 21.9 3.4 6.2
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE 21.8 4.3 6.4
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 20.8 6.1 3.1
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.1 4.7 2.5
7 Dennis Schroder GS 13.3 2.6 5.3
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.7 8.7 2.5
9 Caris LeVert CLE 12.7 3.0 3.8
10 Draymond Green GS 10.9 6.5 4.8
11 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.9 6.5 1.8
12 Buddy Hield GS 8.9 3.2 1.2
13 Georges Niang CLE 8.7 4.5 1.8
14 Sam Merrill CLE 7.8 2.5 1.7
15 Ty Jerome CLE 6.3 2.0 2.5
16 Dean Wade CLE 6.1 5.0 1.5
17 Lindy Waters III GS 5.8 3.1 1.3
18 Moses Moody GS 5.1 1.5 0.7
19 Max Strus CLE 5.0 2.7 1.4
20 Kyle Anderson GS 4.9 2.4 1.5
21 Kevon Looney GS 4.1 4.8 1.4
22 JT Thor CLE 3.3 1.3 0.4
23 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.8 0.9 1.3
24 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.5 1.5 0.6
25 Quinten Post GS 2.4 1.0 0.6
26 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.0 2.5 0.4
27 Gui Santos GS 1.8 1.0 0.5
28 Pat Spencer GS 1.5 0.8 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.