NBA games

DEN @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
132–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN36283434132
UTAH37292332121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home UTAH
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 36 22 11
Michael Porter Jr. S 35 21 6 2
Christian Braun S 36 20 2 2
Jamal Murray S 37 20 4 10
Russell Westbrook S 33 16 10 10
Peyton Watson 26 13 4 1
Julian Strawther 18 4 2 1
DeAndre Jordan 10 2 1 1
Hunter Tyson 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Clarkson 28 24 5 4
Collin Sexton S 29 22 2 4
Lauri Markkanen S 32 17 1 0
Johnny Juzang S 23 14 4 1
Walker Kessler S 38 12 13 4
Isaiah Collier 17 8 4 5
Cody Williams 17 7 1 1
Keyonte George S 28 7 3 6
Kyle Filipowski 10 5 1 2
Brice Sensabaugh 18 5 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keyonte George · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Keyonte George makes 24-foot three point jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
4 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
9%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
6 Christian Braun DEN
8%
7 Russell Westbrook DEN
8%
8 Keyonte George UTAH
8%
9 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
8%
10 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
36%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.7 11.9 9.3
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.9 4.1 6.9
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 20.6 5.9 2.5
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 20.6 3.4 6.0
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 19.3 5.2 3.4
6 Keyonte George UTAH 19.3 3.7 6.2
7 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 18.8 3.6 5.1
8 Russell Westbrook DEN 15.4 5.6 7.9
9 Christian Braun DEN 11.5 4.6 2.4
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 11.2 11.0 1.9
11 Julian Strawther DEN 9.9 2.6 1.7
12 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.9 2.2 1.8
13 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.8 2.8 2.5
14 Johnny Juzang UTAH 8.1 2.4 1.1
15 Peyton Watson DEN 7.3 3.2 1.8
16 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 5.9 3.9 1.9
17 Isaiah Collier UTAH 5.6 2.7 3.9
18 Micah Potter UTAH 5.6 4.4 1.3
19 Drew Eubanks UTAH 5.1 3.3 1.0
20 Dario Saric DEN 4.8 3.0 1.3
21 Patty Mills UTAH 4.6 1.5 1.5
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.4 2.3 0.9
23 Cody Williams UTAH 4.4 2.2 1.2
24 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.8 4.3 1.1
25 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.5 1.2 2.1
26 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.4 0.7 0.6
27 Spencer Jones DEN 2.3 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.