NBA games

LAC @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
116113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC31253129116
NO37252823113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home NO
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 40 35 3 2
James Harden S 36 27 2 4
Ivica Zubac S 36 20 16 4
Derrick Jones Jr. S 32 11 3 2
Kris Dunn S 32 7 3 6
Amir Coffey 21 6 3 0
Kevin Porter Jr. 16 5 2 4
Nicolas Batum 20 3 5 2
Mo Bamba 8 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 39 33 2 4
Trey Murphy III S 38 18 4 6
Herbert Jones S 33 18 4 5
Dejounte Murray S 40 13 10 8
Yves Missi S 35 12 9 4
Javonte Green 15 7 1 1
Daniel Theis 11 6 2 1
Jordan Hawkins 16 3 2 1
Brandon Boston 13 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dejounte Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Dejounte Murray makes 13-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum NO
12%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
3 Dejounte Murray NO
11%
4 James Harden LAC
11%
5 Yves Missi NO
10%
6 Herbert Jones NO
8%
7 Trey Murphy III NO
8%
8 Norman Powell LAC
7%
9 Jose Alvarado NO
7%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
31%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell LAC 24.8 4.1 3.5
2 James Harden LAC 24.3 4.8 8.6
3 Trey Murphy III NO 21.9 4.5 3.1
4 CJ McCollum NO 21.7 4.4 5.3
5 Dejounte Murray NO 20.6 6.8 8.5
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.2 12.3 2.9
7 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 14.0 4.5 3.6
8 Herbert Jones NO 13.4 4.9 4.0
9 Jose Alvarado NO 12.2 2.8 4.5
10 Amir Coffey LAC 11.9 3.1 1.6
11 Brandon Boston NO 10.3 2.9 1.5
12 Yves Missi NO 10.1 9.4 1.3
13 Kris Dunn LAC 9.2 3.2 2.8
14 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.0 3.5 1.5
15 Jordan Hawkins NO 8.1 2.4 1.2
16 Bones Hyland LAC 6.3 1.2 1.2
17 Jordan Miller LAC 5.5 2.2 1.3
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.2 3.1 2.0
19 Javonte Green NO 4.9 3.0 0.8
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.5 3.2 1.1
21 Kobe Brown LAC 4.3 2.8 1.1
22 Antonio Reeves NO 4.3 1.3 0.7
23 Daniel Theis NO 4.2 3.3 1.4
24 Mo Bamba LAC 4.0 3.3 0.7
25 Kai Jones LAC 1.8 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.