NBA games

NY @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
126–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY27323829126
WSH30273118106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home WSH
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 32 13 1
Josh Hart S 41 23 15 10
OG Anunoby S 34 18 8 1
Jalen Brunson S 36 18 3 6
Mikal Bridges S 36 13 6 6
Miles McBride 18 8 2 6
Landry Shamet 11 6 1 1
Precious Achiuwa 19 5 4 0
Cameron Payne 7 3 0 1
Matt Ryan 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonas Valanciunas 21 22 9 2
Alex Sarr S 25 18 4 0
Malcolm Brogdon S 29 18 6 7
Corey Kispert 23 16 2 1
Kyle Kuzma 21 9 2 3
Bilal Coulibaly S 31 6 3 6
Bub Carrington S 28 6 5 5
Kyshawn George 25 4 5 0
Justin Champagnie S 25 3 8 0
Jared Butler 5 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Sarr · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Alexandre Sarr makes 28-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
10%
3 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
4 Malcolm Brogdon WSH
9%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
6 Justin Champagnie WSH
9%
7 Josh Hart NY
9%
8 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
10 Alex Sarr WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
31%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.3 3.7 8.5
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.9 13.8 4.8
3 Mikal Bridges NY 20.9 3.2 3.8
4 Josh Hart NY 17.9 7.7 5.1
5 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 17.3 4.5 4.6
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 17.1 6.2 5.2
7 Kyle Kuzma WSH 16.9 5.6 2.4
8 OG Anunoby NY 14.2 5.2 2.4
9 Justin Champagnie WSH 13.3 7.8 1.7
10 Alex Sarr WSH 13.1 6.0 2.1
11 Corey Kispert WSH 11.4 3.5 1.7
12 Bub Carrington WSH 10.6 4.2 3.0
13 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 10.0 8.5 2.5
14 Miles McBride NY 8.8 3.1 3.2
15 Kyshawn George WSH 7.3 3.6 1.9
16 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.9 6.9 1.6
17 Landry Shamet NY 6.8 2.1 1.2
18 Cameron Payne NY 5.6 1.6 1.5
19 Jared Butler WSH 5.6 1.3 2.3
20 Johnny Davis WSH 3.1 1.6 0.6
21 Jericho Sims NY 2.8 2.8 0.8
22 Tyler Kolek NY 2.6 0.8 0.8
23 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 2.5 0.9 0.3
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.4 1.5 0.5
25 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.4 2.2 0.2
26 Matt Ryan NY 2.1 0.5 0.5
27 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.1 0.9 0.6
28 Anthony Gill WSH 2.1 1.2 0.3
29 Jacob Toppin NY 1.9 0.9 0.5
30 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.7 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.