NBA games

CHI @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
115–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CHI1537212517115
CHA2422252710108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home CHA
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 41 23 10 9
Torrey Craig 21 18 5 2
Patrick Williams S 32 17 3 0
Nikola Vucevic S 35 16 13 3
Josh Giddey S 30 13 12 6
Jalen Smith 18 11 5 0
Dalen Terry 19 5 4 3
Lonzo Ball 26 4 3 5
Talen Horton-Tucker 20 4 5 3
Matas Buzelis 10 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 36 31 12 8
Mark Williams S 31 20 12 2
Seth Curry S 33 17 2 1
Josh Green S 38 14 6 1
Vasilije Micic S 35 7 3 7
KJ Simpson 14 6 2 1
DaQuan Jeffries 22 6 3 0
Tidjane Salaun 17 3 8 2
Nick Richards 13 2 2 0
Isaiah Wong 17 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julian Phillips · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Julian Phillips makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
15%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
3 Coby White CHI
12%
4 Josh Giddey CHI
11%
5 Mark Williams CHA
11%
6 Patrick Williams CHI
10%
7 Vasilije Micic CHA
10%
8 Josh Green CHA
9%
9 Seth Curry CHA
9%
10 Julian Phillips CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
24%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.2 10.1 3.7
2 Miles Bridges CHA 21.6 7.9 4.5
3 Coby White CHI 17.7 3.4 5.0
4 Josh Giddey CHI 15.1 7.7 7.9
5 Vasilije Micic CHA 11.3 2.6 5.2
6 Patrick Williams CHI 10.7 3.4 2.5
7 Mark Williams CHA 10.2 7.3 1.9
8 Nick Richards CHA 9.2 7.5 1.5
9 Josh Green CHA 9.0 3.1 1.8
10 Jalen Smith CHI 7.7 5.9 0.9
11 Matas Buzelis CHI 6.9 3.6 1.3
12 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 6.6 2.9 1.2
13 Lonzo Ball CHI 6.4 3.2 3.2
14 Isaiah Wong CHA 6.3 2.2 1.9
15 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.0 4.1 1.4
16 Julian Phillips CHI 5.5 2.3 0.8
17 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.5 2.3 1.4
18 Torrey Craig CHI 5.4 2.3 0.8
19 Seth Curry CHA 5.0 2.0 0.8
20 Moussa Diabate CHA 4.9 4.3 0.8
21 Jevon Carter CHI 4.4 1.5 1.0
22 Dalen Terry CHI 4.3 1.8 0.9
23 KJ Simpson CHA 3.9 1.7 2.0
24 Taj Gibson CHA 2.2 2.3 0.5
25 Chris Duarte CHI 2.0 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.