NBA games

SA @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
110–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA33123728110
MIN25322530112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MIN
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 37 34 8 2
Harrison Barnes S 34 24 5 0
Devin Vassell S 36 22 7 4
Keldon Johnson 17 13 6 0
Chris Paul S 35 6 5 14
Jeremy Sochan S 37 5 4 1
Charles Bassey 5 4 2 0
Tre Jones 13 2 3 2
Zach Collins 7 0 0 0
Julian Champagnie 11 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donte DiVincenzo 34 26 7 4
Rudy Gobert S 31 17 15 2
Julius Randle S 35 16 4 4
Anthony Edwards S 38 14 8 4
Jaden McDaniels S 32 12 10 1
Naz Reid 21 11 4 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 16 6 2 2
Josh Minott 11 5 4 1
Mike Conley S 23 5 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremy Sochan · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jeremy Sochan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Julius Randle MIN
12%
4 Jeremy Sochan SA
12%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
9 Chris Paul SA
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
20%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 31.4 11.4 5.1
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.7 5.9 5.5
3 Julius Randle MIN 21.1 7.5 5.7
4 Jeremy Sochan SA 15.6 9.1 3.0
5 Devin Vassell SA 14.7 4.1 2.8
6 Julian Champagnie SA 12.1 4.1 1.4
7 Stephon Castle SA 11.7 3.0 3.6
8 Keldon Johnson SA 11.3 4.1 1.6
9 Naz Reid MIN 10.8 4.8 1.9
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.6 3.7 2.9
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.4 9.3 1.6
12 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.2 5.7 1.7
13 Chris Paul SA 9.9 4.5 7.2
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.4 3.1 2.3
15 Harrison Barnes SA 8.6 2.3 1.4
16 Mike Conley MIN 8.6 2.9 4.0
17 Tre Jones SA 5.1 2.4 3.9
18 Charles Bassey SA 4.5 5.5 0.4
19 Josh Minott MIN 4.4 2.2 1.0
20 Leonard Miller MIN 3.7 3.0 0.5
21 Zach Collins SA 3.1 2.3 0.8
22 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.0 2.2 0.4
23 Joe Ingles MIN 3.0 1.5 1.9
24 Blake Wesley SA 2.7 1.0 1.3
25 Malaki Branham SA 2.1 0.8 1.0
26 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 1.8 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.