NBA games

MEM @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
106–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM31192432106
OKC34422628130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home OKC
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 29 22 9 4
Jay Huff 17 17 1 2
Luke Kennard 27 16 5 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 25 13 5 4
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 24 10 3 6
Yuki Kawamura 11 10 3 3
Cam Spencer 22 7 5 4
John Konchar S 34 4 15 1
Jaylen Wells S 25 4 2 1
Colin Castleton 11 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 28 35 6 7
Ajay Mitchell 22 17 1 3
Aaron Wiggins 24 16 3 0
Jalen Williams S 26 14 10 8
Isaiah Hartenstein S 25 12 9 6
Kenrich Williams 12 12 3 3
Isaiah Joe 22 11 3 0
Jaylin Williams 10 5 2 1
Cason Wallace S 31 5 1 3
Luguentz Dort S 26 3 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Wells · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:52 Q1
"Jaylen Wells makes 16-foot step back jumpshot (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
18%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
12%
3 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
11%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
8 Ajay Mitchell OKC
8%
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC
7%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
32%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.6 5.6 5.6
2 Jalen Williams OKC 23.2 5.3 5.0
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.4 6.3 3.0
4 Desmond Bane MEM 19.0 5.0 6.1
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 13.7 11.7 3.4
6 Jaylen Wells MEM 9.8 3.0 1.5
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 9.6 3.2 3.9
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.5 4.8 1.3
9 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.4 4.3 2.0
10 Cason Wallace OKC 7.9 3.6 2.2
11 Brandon Clarke MEM 7.8 6.2 1.2
12 Jay Huff MEM 7.3 3.2 0.9
13 Ajay Mitchell OKC 7.3 3.1 1.9
14 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.7 3.5 1.2
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.4 2.8 1.2
16 Luke Kennard MEM 6.3 2.3 1.9
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.2 2.5 2.5
18 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.9 2.4 1.0
19 Cam Spencer MEM 3.5 1.3 0.9
20 John Konchar MEM 3.4 2.4 1.0
21 Dillon Jones OKC 3.3 1.8 0.7
22 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.8 2.0 0.7
23 Branden Carlson OKC 1.3 1.2 0.4
24 Colin Castleton MEM 1.2 1.6 0.4
25 Yuki Kawamura MEM 0.9 0.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.