NBA games

MIA @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
104–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA31222823104
HOU27233218100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home HOU
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 37 27 6 9
Nikola Jovic 31 18 7 6
Haywood Highsmith S 38 15 8 2
Terry Rozier S 38 14 5 0
Bam Adebayo S 34 12 10 1
Kel'el Ware 14 7 7 2
Kevin Love S 14 5 6 1
Alec Burks 18 4 0 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 16 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 40 22 4 0
Jalen Green S 34 19 3 2
Alperen Sengun S 35 18 18 6
Fred VanVleet S 38 16 7 6
Cam Whitmore 12 7 3 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 26 7 3 0
Amen Thompson 32 5 5 5
Steven Adams 12 4 9 3
Aaron Holiday 11 2 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
11%
4 Jalen Green HOU
9%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
6 Amen Thompson HOU
7%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
7%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
23%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.3 6.4 5.5
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.7 10.5 5.2
3 Jalen Green HOU 20.8 4.2 3.3
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.8 10.1 4.8
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA 18.2 5.7 4.5
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.7 4.4 5.4
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 15.1 4.2 2.4
8 Amen Thompson HOU 13.9 7.8 2.5
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.3 6.3 1.6
10 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.1 2.8 3.3
11 Terry Rozier MIA 10.3 4.3 1.8
12 Tari Eason HOU 8.8 5.9 1.2
13 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.3 3.2 1.9
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.0 2.8 1.5
15 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.7 3.1 1.2
16 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.6 2.4 0.9
17 Alec Burks MIA 6.5 2.6 1.0
18 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.0 2.5 1.4
19 Josh Christopher MIA 4.9 1.4 2.2
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.2 1.3 1.0
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.9 2.3 0.8
22 Kel'el Ware MIA 3.8 2.7 0.5
23 Jeff Green HOU 3.6 1.3 0.6
24 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.5 1.9 0.8
25 Kevin Love MIA 3.4 2.8 0.9
26 Isaiah Stevens MIA 3.3 1.3 2.4
27 Steven Adams HOU 3.2 4.2 0.8
28 Jock Landale HOU 2.6 2.3 0.8
29 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.5 1.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.