NBA games

ATL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
136–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL35294032136
TOR25332425107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home TOR
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 32 34 2 10
De'Andre Hunter 22 22 3 2
Jalen Johnson S 33 15 4 3
Onyeka Okongwu 18 15 4 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 27 14 7 2
Clint Capela S 27 11 12 2
Garrison Mathews 23 11 2 6
Keaton Wallace 16 9 1 2
Vit Krejci S 30 5 4 3
Dominick Barlow 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 35 19 8 5
RJ Barrett S 30 17 6 4
Jakob Poeltl S 27 13 6 1
Bruce Brown 19 12 3 1
Chris Boucher 12 9 2 0
Jamison Battle 9 8 2 0
Gradey Dick S 25 6 6 1
Kelly Olynyk 12 6 6 2
Ja'Kobe Walter 16 5 0 1
Jamal Shead 25 5 2 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zaccharie Risacher · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:34 Q1
"Zaccharie Risacher makes 24-foot three point jumper (Clint Capela assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
13%
2 Trae Young ATL
11%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
6 Clint Capela ATL
9%
7 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
9 Vit Krejci ATL
7%
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
35%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 26.9 7.6 7.0
2 Trae Young ATL 26.5 3.4 11.6
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.4 11.7 6.1
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.4 7.3 8.4
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 22.6 4.4 2.2
6 Gradey Dick TOR 17.9 4.1 2.5
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.4 9.8 2.8
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 13.0 3.2 2.2
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.9 6.6 1.4
10 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 11.1 2.6 1.6
11 Ochai Agbaji TOR 11.0 3.2 1.6
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.5 3.2 1.4
13 Clint Capela ATL 8.9 9.5 1.4
14 Kelly Olynyk TOR 8.4 4.2 2.9
15 Chris Boucher TOR 8.2 3.7 1.2
16 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 7.2 5.3 1.9
17 Garrison Mathews ATL 6.6 2.0 1.2
18 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.5 2.3 2.3
19 Jamison Battle TOR 5.5 1.7 1.2
20 Vit Krejci ATL 4.9 2.7 2.3
21 Jamal Shead TOR 4.9 1.3 2.9
22 David Roddy ATL 2.5 1.0 0.6
23 Garrett Temple TOR 2.5 1.3 0.8
24 Dominick Barlow ATL 1.9 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.