Sunday, December 29, 2024

IND @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final

123–114

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
IND	27	38	33	25	123
BOS	29	29	33	23	114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (IND) games this season

IND away

home BOS

35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Tyrese Haliburton S	36	31	6	7	11/19	1/6	13
Andrew Nembhard S	33	17	8	8	6/12	1/1	23
Pascal Siakam S	31	17	8	6	6/11	1/2	10
Bennedict Mathurin S	29	14	5	1	6/8	1/1	9
Myles Turner S	33	13	6	3	5/8	0/1	12
Jarace Walker	25	12	5	0	4/8	3/5	3
Thomas Bryant	15	8	3	0	4/6	0/1	-3
Ben Sheppard	21	8	4	1	3/8	2/5	-4
T.J. McConnell	14	3	5	1	1/6	0/1	-10
Quenton Jackson	1	0	0	0	0/1	0/0	-4

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Jaylen Brown S	36	31	4	6	13/21	2/6	-10
Jayson Tatum S	41	22	9	6	8/17	2/10	-21
Payton Pritchard	28	21	4	3	7/13	5/8	-2
Derrick White S	39	17	3	3	7/15	3/11	-20
Sam Hauser S	20	9	0	3	3/6	3/6	0
Neemias Queta	5	6	3	1	2/2	0/0	3
Al Horford S	31	5	5	3	2/12	1/10	-14
Drew Peterson	2	2	0	0	1/1	0/0	6
Luke Kornet	14	1	9	0	0/1	0/0	-3
Jordan Walsh	19	0	3	0	0/2	0/1	4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Tyrese Haliburton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1

"Tyrese Haliburton makes 6-foot two point shot (Myles Turner assists)"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Jaylen Brown BOS

13%

2 Jayson Tatum BOS

12%

3 Pascal Siakam IND

10%

4 Jrue Holiday BOS

5 Myles Turner IND

6 Bennedict Mathurin IND

7 Tyrese Haliburton IND

8 Derrick White BOS

9 Andrew Nembhard IND

10 Ben Sheppard IND

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

15%

Dunk

Free Throw

16%

Jumper

51%

Layup

14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Jayson Tatum	BOS	27.3	11.2	5.4	22	9	6
2	Jaylen Brown	BOS	24.3	5.5	5.6	31	4	6
3	Tyrese Haliburton	IND	18.9	4.3	8.9	31	6	7
4	Pascal Siakam	IND	17.8	8.5	2.3	17	8	6
5	Derrick White	BOS	14.9	4.6	4.8	17	3	3
6	Andrew Nembhard	IND	14.0	3.7	4.7	17	8	8
7	Myles Turner	IND	13.3	6.8	2.0	13	6	3
8	Bennedict Mathurin	IND	13.1	5.5	2.1	14	5	1
9	T.J. McConnell	IND	13.1	3.1	4.8	3	5	1
10	Payton Pritchard	BOS	13.1	5.0	4.3	21	4	3
11	Jrue Holiday	BOS	12.2	4.5	3.1	—	—	—
12	Al Horford	BOS	9.1	4.8	1.8	5	5	3
13	Sam Hauser	BOS	7.4	2.9	1.3	9	0	3
14	Quenton Jackson	IND	7.1	2.4	1.9	0	0	0
15	Jarace Walker	IND	6.9	3.0	1.4	12	5	0
16	Ben Sheppard	IND	5.9	2.7	1.3	8	4	1
17	Luke Kornet	BOS	5.9	6.6	1.3	1	9	0
18	Drew Peterson	BOS	5.2	2.4	0.9	2	0	0
19	Neemias Queta	BOS	4.7	4.3	0.7	6	3	1
20	Thomas Bryant	IND	4.1	3.1	0.5	8	3	0
21	Johnny Furphy	IND	4.1	2.3	0.6	0	0	0
22	Jordan Walsh	BOS	3.3	2.1	0.7	0	3	0
23	James Johnson	IND	2.6	1.6	0.5	—	—	—
24	Enrique Freeman	IND	2.6	1.5	0.4	—	—	—
25	Xavier Tillman	BOS	2.6	2.0	0.5	0	0	0
26	Jaden Springer	BOS	2.5	1.6	0.6	0	1	1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.