NBA games

BKN @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
101–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN27342218101
ORL21222534102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home ORL
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas 25 25 6 5
Jalen Wilson 31 16 1 1
Keon Johnson S 33 14 3 2
Noah Clowney S 28 13 2 0
Cameron Johnson S 25 9 3 4
Day'Ron Sharpe 16 8 6 1
Nic Claxton S 32 6 5 1
Ben Simmons S 31 6 7 7
Tyrese Martin 20 4 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tristan da Silva S 35 21 6 7
Goga Bitadze S 34 19 11 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 27 13 6 1
Caleb Houstan 15 12 0 1
Cole Anthony 17 10 3 3
Jalen Suggs S 13 8 2 2
Gary Harris 15 6 0 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 5 1 5
Jonathan Isaac 19 5 9 2
Cory Joseph 14 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Goga Bitadze · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Goga Bitadze makes 1-foot two point shot (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Suggs ORL
12%
2 Goga Bitadze ORL
10%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
4 Cam Thomas BKN
9%
5 Keon Johnson BKN
8%
6 Anthony Black ORL
8%
7 Ben Simmons BKN
8%
8 Cameron Johnson BKN
7%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
10 Tristan da Silva ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
29%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 23.5 3.5 4.0
2 Jalen Suggs ORL 22.6 4.9 4.5
3 Cameron Johnson BKN 22.4 4.5 3.6
4 Goga Bitadze ORL 13.2 10.6 2.4
5 Nic Claxton BKN 11.6 7.4 1.5
6 Tristan da Silva ORL 11.1 3.4 1.6
7 Anthony Black ORL 10.6 3.3 2.9
8 Keon Johnson BKN 10.0 3.7 1.7
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.0 2.5 2.2
10 Cole Anthony ORL 9.4 2.8 3.7
11 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.1 3.0 2.0
12 Noah Clowney BKN 9.0 4.0 1.1
13 Tyrese Martin BKN 8.6 3.5 1.5
14 Ben Simmons BKN 7.3 4.4 6.3
15 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 7.3 5.9 2.1
16 Ziaire Williams BKN 7.2 3.1 1.1
17 Trendon Watford BKN 6.5 2.2 1.0
18 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.9 1.5 1.3
19 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 5.6 4.9 0.9
20 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.3 3.7 0.7
21 Gary Harris ORL 5.0 1.5 0.9
22 Jett Howard ORL 3.9 1.3 0.8
23 Cory Joseph ORL 3.1 1.4 0.8
24 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.0 1.0 0.7
25 Reece Beekman BKN 2.1 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.