NBA games

SAC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
122–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC31352432122
LAL40254225132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home LAL
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 39 29 5 12
DeMar DeRozan S 41 25 6 7
Malik Monk S 33 20 6 7
Domantas Sabonis S 26 14 12 7
Keon Ellis 13 11 1 1
Kevin Huerter 24 9 1 3
Trey Lyles 23 6 5 0
Keegan Murray S 29 5 3 0
Alex Len 11 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 39 36 15 8
Austin Reaves S 43 26 6 16
Rui Hachimura S 34 21 4 0
Dalton Knecht 33 18 2 1
Max Christie S 32 16 1 2
D'Angelo Russell 28 9 2 4
Christian Koloko 5 4 1 0
Cam Reddish 19 2 1 2
Gabe Vincent S 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 22-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
14%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
7 Malik Monk SAC
8%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
9 Alex Len SAC
7%
10 Max Christie LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
33%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.2 5.1 6.7
2 Anthony Davis LAL 22.7 11.7 4.1
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.9 13.1 5.5
4 Austin Reaves LAL 19.9 4.7 5.3
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC 18.7 3.9 3.5
6 Malik Monk SAC 17.5 4.0 6.0
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL 14.1 3.9 4.3
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.7 5.6 1.8
9 Keegan Murray SAC 11.8 6.9 1.3
10 Max Christie LAL 10.1 3.3 1.7
11 Kevin Huerter SAC 9.4 3.5 1.8
12 Trey Lyles SAC 8.5 4.6 1.4
13 Gabe Vincent LAL 7.3 2.3 1.8
14 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.2 3.5 1.2
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.9 4.6 1.1
16 Keon Ellis SAC 5.3 2.7 1.1
17 Quincy Olivari LAL 5.1 2.0 0.8
18 Cam Reddish LAL 4.5 2.0 1.2
19 Isaac Jones SAC 4.2 2.1 0.6
20 Doug McDermott SAC 3.4 0.8 0.4
21 Jae Crowder SAC 3.0 1.9 0.5
22 Colby Jones SAC 2.6 1.8 0.6
23 Alex Len SAC 2.4 2.1 1.0
24 Christian Koloko LAL 2.3 2.7 0.5
25 Orlando Robinson SAC 2.0 1.1 0.7
26 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 1.7 0.8 0.5
27 Armel Traore LAL 1.7 2.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.