NBA games

DAL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
122–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL25342340122
POR36332829126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home POR
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 39 46 2 2
Spencer Dinwiddie S 35 17 8 4
Quentin Grimes 28 15 6 3
Daniel Gafford S 28 15 9 0
Klay Thompson S 34 12 1 1
Jaden Hardy 17 11 4 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 13 4 2 1
Dwight Powell 8 2 0 2
Jazian Gortman 5 0 0 1
Maxi Kleber S 33 0 8 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 38 23 5 4
Anfernee Simons S 40 22 4 8
Deni Avdija S 31 21 5 5
Deandre Ayton S 36 21 16 1
Scoot Henderson 29 19 4 6
Jerami Grant S 42 14 8 3
Donovan Clingan 12 4 7 0
Kris Murray 8 2 1 0
Rayan Rupert 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes 16-foot two point shot (Deni Avdija assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
15%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
13%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
5 Kyrie Irving DAL
10%
6 Klay Thompson DAL
9%
7 Toumani Camara POR
8%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
9 Naji Marshall DAL
8%
10 Jerami Grant POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
33%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.5 4.4 5.4
2 Anfernee Simons POR 19.1 3.1 6.2
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.2 4.4 3.2
4 Deni Avdija POR 17.0 5.0 3.4
5 Klay Thompson DAL 16.3 3.8 2.6
6 Deandre Ayton POR 16.1 10.1 2.1
7 P.J. Washington DAL 13.4 5.5 2.7
8 Jerami Grant POR 13.0 3.7 2.9
9 Naji Marshall DAL 12.7 3.6 1.8
10 Scoot Henderson POR 11.5 3.0 5.5
11 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 10.7 2.9 3.5
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.1 5.6 1.2
13 Quentin Grimes DAL 9.8 3.9 2.0
14 Toumani Camara POR 9.8 6.0 1.7
15 Dalano Banton POR 8.4 2.4 2.7
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.6 1.7 1.4
17 Donovan Clingan POR 6.4 6.7 1.1
18 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.3 3.1 1.0
19 Kris Murray POR 4.2 1.7 0.9
20 Brandon Williams DAL 4.1 1.3 0.9
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.9 2.3 0.9
22 Jazian Gortman DAL 3.3 1.1 0.7
23 Jabari Walker POR 3.3 2.8 0.5
24 Dwight Powell DAL 3.1 1.9 0.9
25 Kessler Edwards DAL 2.8 1.2 0.6
26 Rayan Rupert POR 2.6 1.1 0.6
27 Justin Minaya POR 2.5 1.2 0.6
28 Duop Reath POR 2.2 0.9 0.4
29 Markieff Morris DAL 1.8 0.8 0.4
30 Bryce McGowens POR 1.3 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.