NBA games

DET @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
121–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET38232832121
DEN36314720134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home DEN
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 27 17 2 8
Jaden Ivey S 21 17 3 1
Malik Beasley 19 14 2 1
Ronald Holland II 20 12 2 0
Jalen Duren S 20 12 7 2
Ausar Thompson 24 10 6 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 18 8 1 1
Paul Reed 12 7 2 2
Tobias Harris S 24 7 2 1
Wendell Moore Jr. 12 6 5 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 37 9 8
Jamal Murray S 40 34 5 4
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 26 3 0
Christian Braun S 30 10 4 3
Russell Westbrook S 31 8 9 8
Julian Strawther 23 6 3 1
DeAndre Jordan 11 6 3 0
Peyton Watson 23 5 1 3
Hunter Tyson 13 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden Ivey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Jaden Ivey makes 7-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
2 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
12%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
6 Jalen Duren DET
10%
7 Christian Braun DEN
9%
8 Russell Westbrook DEN
9%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
10 Tobias Harris DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
23%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.9 11.4 9.7
2 Cade Cunningham DET 28.9 5.8 10.3
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.1 4.1 6.9
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 19.7 5.9 3.4
5 Jaden Ivey DET 18.5 4.0 4.1
6 Malik Beasley DET 17.4 3.7 2.3
7 Russell Westbrook DEN 15.4 5.3 7.0
8 Christian Braun DEN 12.5 4.8 2.2
9 Tobias Harris DET 12.2 4.9 2.3
10 Jalen Duren DET 11.4 8.1 2.0
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 10.3 2.7 1.5
12 Julian Strawther DEN 9.8 2.6 1.4
13 Ausar Thompson DET 8.1 4.0 1.6
14 Marcus Sasser DET 7.8 1.5 2.6
15 Peyton Watson DEN 7.5 3.6 1.6
16 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.9 2.7 1.3
17 Ronald Holland II DET 6.8 2.8 1.3
18 Paul Reed DET 5.9 3.3 1.4
19 Isaiah Stewart DET 4.7 3.2 1.0
20 Dario Saric DEN 4.7 3.1 1.3
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.6 2.4 0.8
22 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.5 2.7 1.0
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.0 1.6 2.1
24 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.6 4.5 1.0
25 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.5 1.1 0.6
26 Spencer Jones DEN 2.5 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.