NBA games

PHX @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
105–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX27382218105
GS34272127109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home GS
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 37 31 6 3
Bradley Beal S 40 28 5 2
Ryan Dunn S 27 15 4 1
Josh Okogie 31 11 9 0
Tyus Jones S 32 8 5 6
Monte Morris 16 8 1 2
Oso Ighodaro 20 2 6 1
Mason Plumlee S 26 2 9 6
Royce O'Neale 12 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga 34 34 9 3
Stephen Curry S 35 22 6 6
Draymond Green S 35 16 8 7
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 23 16 10 2
Dennis Schroder S 34 11 3 3
Andrew Wiggins S 39 7 7 3
Lindy Waters III 14 3 4 1
Brandin Podziemski 11 0 2 0
Buddy Hield 15 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bradley Beal · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Bradley Beal makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mason Plumlee assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
14%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
3 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
5 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
8%
6 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
7%
8 Buddy Hield GS
7%
9 Dennis Schroder GS
7%
10 Kyle Anderson GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
28%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 26.9 6.6 4.6
2 Stephen Curry GS 23.1 4.3 6.6
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 21.7 6.1 3.2
4 Bradley Beal PHX 19.8 4.5 3.5
5 Andrew Wiggins GS 16.3 4.4 2.7
6 Dennis Schroder GS 14.9 2.7 6.1
7 Tyus Jones PHX 14.8 3.0 5.2
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 13.2 5.2 3.3
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.5 8.6 3.0
10 Draymond Green GS 10.4 6.3 5.3
11 Buddy Hield GS 10.4 3.7 1.4
12 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.1 4.2 2.7
13 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.8 6.1 2.0
14 Lindy Waters III GS 6.6 3.3 1.5
15 Moses Moody GS 6.0 1.7 0.9
16 Monte Morris PHX 5.9 2.2 2.0
17 Kyle Anderson GS 5.8 2.6 1.7
18 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.4 2.9 0.9
19 Kevon Looney GS 4.8 5.0 1.6
20 Gary Payton II GS 4.8 3.5 1.2
21 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.7 6.5 1.5
22 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.1 3.0 1.0
23 Damion Lee PHX 3.9 1.5 0.9
24 Josh Okogie PHX 3.8 2.1 0.8
25 Jalen Bridges PHX 2.6 1.6 0.6
26 Gui Santos GS 2.6 1.4 0.7
27 Pat Spencer GS 1.8 0.9 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.