NBA games

MIL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
111–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL25352427111
CHI33292133116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home CHI
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 35 29 6 12
Brook Lopez S 38 22 7 3
Khris Middleton S 28 21 6 4
Bobby Portis S 34 14 9 4
Ryan Rollins 21 7 7 1
Gary Trent Jr. 17 7 2 1
Taurean Prince 20 6 3 0
AJ Green 24 5 2 1
Andre Jackson Jr. S 23 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 38 23 13 5
Josh Giddey S 29 23 15 10
Coby White S 34 22 2 4
Zach LaVine S 35 15 6 7
Patrick Williams S 29 9 2 1
Lonzo Ball 19 9 3 3
Torrey Craig 11 6 3 0
Jevon Carter 6 5 1 1
Dalen Terry 17 2 3 2
Matas Buzelis 13 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Patrick Williams · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Patrick Williams makes 12-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
14%
2 Coby White CHI
10%
3 Zach LaVine CHI
9%
4 Bobby Portis MIL
9%
5 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
6 Khris Middleton MIL
8%
7 Dalen Terry CHI
8%
8 Josh Giddey CHI
7%
9 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
10 Ryan Rollins MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
38%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Damian Lillard MIL 23.5 3.9 6.9
2 Zach LaVine CHI 22.4 4.3 4.5
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.2 9.4 3.3
4 Bobby Portis MIL 17.7 8.8 3.8
5 Coby White CHI 16.6 3.2 4.2
6 Khris Middleton MIL 14.4 4.1 5.8
7 Josh Giddey CHI 12.3 6.4 6.5
8 Brook Lopez MIL 11.8 5.0 1.4
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.0 2.9 1.3
10 Patrick Williams CHI 10.9 3.5 2.5
11 AJ Green MIL 8.1 2.8 2.3
12 Taurean Prince MIL 6.5 2.9 1.6
13 Ryan Rollins MIL 6.2 2.5 1.6
14 Matas Buzelis CHI 5.7 3.1 0.9
15 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.7 2.3 1.7
16 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.5 3.0 1.7
17 Julian Phillips CHI 5.5 2.4 0.9
18 Torrey Craig CHI 5.2 2.1 0.7
19 Lonzo Ball CHI 4.7 2.5 2.9
20 Emanuel Miller CHI 4.6 2.0 0.5
21 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.4 2.0 1.0
22 Delon Wright MIL 4.4 2.3 1.7
23 Jevon Carter CHI 4.4 1.3 0.9
24 Dalen Terry CHI 4.0 1.3 0.8
25 Liam Robbins MIL 2.5 1.6 0.6
26 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.1 1.0 0.4
27 Stanley Umude MIL 2.0 0.9 0.4
28 Chris Duarte CHI 1.9 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.