NBA games

NY @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
136–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
NY3228302917136
WSH3327382113132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home WSH
84% 16%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 44 55 3 9
Karl-Anthony Towns S 44 30 14 3
Mikal Bridges S 47 21 3 3
Josh Hart S 39 13 11 7
OG Anunoby S 42 9 4 0
Precious Achiuwa 19 3 7 2
Miles McBride 19 3 0 1
Cameron Payne 6 2 1 0
Landry Shamet 6 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Justin Champagnie S 45 31 10 1
Malcolm Brogdon S 30 22 3 7
Bilal Coulibaly S 37 18 6 6
Bub Carrington S 43 17 5 5
Kyshawn George 34 13 3 3
Alex Sarr S 32 12 6 5
Corey Kispert 23 11 3 2
Jonas Valanciunas 21 8 8 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Justin Champagnie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Justin Champagnie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
13%
2 OG Anunoby NY
12%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
4 Josh Hart NY
11%
5 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
7 Alex Sarr WSH
11%
8 Bub Carrington WSH
10%
9 Justin Champagnie WSH
8%
10 Corey Kispert WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
46%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.2 3.6 8.0
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.6 13.7 4.5
3 Mikal Bridges NY 20.9 3.2 4.0
4 Josh Hart NY 17.8 8.2 5.4
5 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 16.5 4.4 4.1
6 OG Anunoby NY 16.4 5.3 2.5
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 15.0 5.9 4.8
8 Alex Sarr WSH 13.0 5.9 2.1
9 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.6 6.7 1.5
10 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 10.5 8.6 2.2
11 Bub Carrington WSH 10.4 4.5 2.8
12 Corey Kispert WSH 10.4 3.5 1.6
13 Miles McBride NY 9.7 3.1 3.4
14 Landry Shamet NY 8.3 2.6 1.2
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.8 6.7 1.5
16 Kyshawn George WSH 6.6 3.6 1.6
17 Cameron Payne NY 6.2 1.8 1.9
18 Jared Butler WSH 5.7 1.4 2.4
19 Jericho Sims NY 3.4 3.2 0.8
20 Johnny Davis WSH 3.1 1.7 0.6
21 Tyler Kolek NY 2.8 0.9 0.8
22 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.6 1.7 0.5
23 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.5 2.3 0.3
24 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 2.5 1.0 0.3
25 Matt Ryan NY 2.3 0.6 0.5
26 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.3 1.0 0.5
27 Anthony Gill WSH 2.1 1.2 0.3
28 Jacob Toppin NY 2.0 1.0 0.5
29 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.7 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.