NBA games

OKC @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
106–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC28332916106
CHA2224282094

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home CHA
75% 25%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 33 22 4 6
Jalen Williams S 34 20 3 6
Aaron Wiggins S 33 17 5 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 25 12 15 4
Ajay Mitchell S 32 10 5 4
Kenrich Williams 22 9 4 1
Jaylin Williams 23 9 4 6
Isaiah Joe 16 5 4 0
Dillon Jones 15 2 3 1
Ousmane Dieng 7 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 38 19 10 6
Vasilije Micic S 29 16 2 4
Mark Williams S 22 12 10 2
Seth Curry S 22 12 2 0
Isaiah Wong 19 10 0 1
Josh Green S 39 10 2 1
Tidjane Salaun 31 9 5 1
DaQuan Jeffries 13 5 3 1
Nick Richards 12 1 7 0
Moussa Diabate 14 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · Layup (2 pts) · 10:54 Q1
"Isaiah Hartenstein makes layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
22%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
18%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
14%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
14%
5 Mark Williams CHA
13%
6 Grant Williams CHA
10%
7 Josh Green CHA
9%
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC
0%
9 Ajay Mitchell OKC
0%
10 Dillon Jones OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
26%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.5 5.5 6.3
2 Jalen Williams OKC 23.1 5.2 5.1
3 Miles Bridges CHA 21.1 7.6 3.7
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 13.1 11.3 3.4
5 Grant Williams CHA 12.3 6.2 2.0
6 Vasilije Micic CHA 10.4 2.6 4.5
7 Nick Richards CHA 9.6 7.3 1.4
8 Mark Williams CHA 9.3 6.8 1.7
9 Josh Green CHA 7.7 3.2 1.6
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.3 2.6 1.4
11 Ajay Mitchell OKC 6.7 2.8 1.8
12 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.3 3.5 1.1
13 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 6.1 2.9 1.0
14 Isaiah Wong CHA 5.9 2.2 1.7
15 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.8 4.2 1.2
16 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.7 2.2 1.0
17 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.1 4.9 0.8
18 Seth Curry CHA 3.3 1.3 0.5
19 Dillon Jones OKC 3.0 1.5 0.8
20 Malevy Leons OKC 3.0 2.1 0.6
21 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.4 1.7 0.5
22 Taj Gibson CHA 1.5 2.1 0.4
23 Branden Carlson OKC 1.3 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.