NBA games

MIA @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
110–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA28302626110
ATL35263227120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home ATL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 36 28 7 10
Bam Adebayo S 37 17 10 2
Duncan Robinson S 38 16 5 5
Haywood Highsmith S 36 14 6 2
Alec Burks 19 10 1 1
Terry Rozier 20 9 5 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 21 8 5 1
Nikola Jovic 18 4 2 1
Kel'el Ware 10 4 1 0
Pelle Larsson 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 35 28 13 5
De'Andre Hunter 29 26 5 2
Garrison Mathews 27 18 2 2
Trae Young S 37 11 1 15
Larry Nance Jr. 27 10 10 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 27 9 4 1
Vit Krejci S 23 7 3 5
Clint Capela S 21 6 7 1
Keaton Wallace 14 5 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Haywood Highsmith · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Haywood Highsmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
12%
4 Trae Young ATL
11%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
6 Clint Capela ATL
9%
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
8%
8 Haywood Highsmith MIA
8%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
30%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 25.1 6.3 5.4
2 Trae Young ATL 24.0 3.7 11.2
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.9 10.3 5.6
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 20.5 10.1 6.0
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 20.5 4.0 1.8
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA 19.1 5.9 4.8
7 Terry Rozier MIA 12.1 4.1 2.4
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 11.8 3.1 2.1
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.7 2.8 3.3
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.1 3.7 2.3
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.1 2.9 1.2
12 Clint Capela ATL 8.5 9.5 1.3
13 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 8.4 4.1 1.7
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.0 2.8 1.6
15 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.5 3.1 1.5
16 Alec Burks MIA 6.3 2.7 1.2
17 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.7 2.3 1.3
18 Josh Christopher MIA 5.4 1.5 2.5
19 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.0 1.6 0.9
20 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.2 1.6 1.8
21 Kevin Love MIA 3.9 2.9 1.0
22 Kel'el Ware MIA 3.7 2.8 0.6
23 Isaiah Stevens MIA 3.6 1.5 2.7
24 Vit Krejci ATL 3.4 2.3 1.7
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.7 1.5 0.4
26 David Roddy ATL 2.1 0.9 0.5
27 Dominick Barlow ATL 1.5 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.