NBA games

GS @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
92–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS2122193092
LAC19303221102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home LAC
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga 37 34 10 5
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 31 15 9 2
Moses Moody 24 11 2 1
Brandin Podziemski 31 10 2 5
Dennis Schroder S 24 7 1 5
Kyle Anderson S 15 5 6 1
Andrew Wiggins S 24 5 2 2
Buddy Hield S 22 5 9 0
Lindy Waters III 16 0 1 1
Kevon Looney 12 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 40 26 3 1
James Harden S 39 18 3 7
Ivica Zubac S 36 17 11 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 30 14 6 2
Kris Dunn S 34 13 7 4
Amir Coffey 26 11 2 0
Nicolas Batum 20 3 5 3
Mo Bamba 12 0 2 0
Jordan Miller 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 1-foot driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
16%
2 James Harden LAC
13%
3 Dennis Schroder GS
12%
4 Norman Powell LAC
12%
5 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
10%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
8 Kyle Anderson GS
8%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Buddy Hield GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
38%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
25%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 24.8 4.9 8.2
2 Norman Powell LAC 23.2 3.9 3.5
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 18.4 5.6 2.7
4 Andrew Wiggins GS 17.4 4.6 2.7
5 Dennis Schroder GS 17.3 2.9 5.7
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 14.9 11.8 2.8
7 Amir Coffey LAC 10.1 2.7 1.5
8 Buddy Hield GS 9.6 3.1 1.3
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 9.5 4.3 2.5
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.0 3.0 1.2
11 Kris Dunn LAC 6.8 2.9 2.2
12 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.7 5.7 1.8
13 Bones Hyland LAC 5.9 1.1 1.2
14 Kevon Looney GS 5.2 5.4 1.8
15 Jordan Miller LAC 5.2 1.9 1.1
16 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.0 2.5 1.5
17 Lindy Waters III GS 4.9 2.6 1.1
18 Moses Moody GS 4.3 1.3 0.5
19 Kobe Brown LAC 4.1 2.8 1.0
20 Kyle Anderson GS 4.0 1.8 1.3
21 Mo Bamba LAC 3.3 3.0 0.6
22 Quinten Post GS 3.2 1.2 0.7
23 Kai Jones LAC 1.8 1.4 0.5
24 Pat Spencer GS 1.6 0.8 0.9
25 Gui Santos GS 1.2 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.