DAL @ PHX
NBA
Mortgage Matchup Center
·Final
98–89
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 28 | 27 | 17 | 26 | 98 |
| PHX | 25 | 14 | 25 | 25 | 89 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL
away
home
PHX
59%
41%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving S | 40 | 20 | 4 | 5 |
| Daniel Gafford S | 29 | 16 | 5 | 1 |
| Maxi Kleber | 26 | 15 | 7 | 2 |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | 23 | 15 | 3 | 3 |
| Klay Thompson S | 32 | 11 | 6 | 5 |
| Quentin Grimes | 29 | 8 | 5 | 1 |
| P.J. Washington S | 20 | 7 | 3 | 2 |
| Naji Marshall S | 19 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Dwight Powell | 15 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Daniel Gafford ·
Dunk (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes 4-foot dunk (Klay Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Kyrie Irving
DAL
18%
2
Bradley Beal
PHX
14%
3
Kevin Durant
PHX
14%
4
Tyus Jones
PHX
11%
5
Jusuf Nurkic
PHX
11%
6
P.J. Washington
DAL
11%
7
Ryan Dunn
PHX
10%
8
Klay Thompson
DAL
9%
9
Naji Marshall
DAL
0%
10
Quentin Grimes
DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
41%
Layup
19%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Durant | PHX | 26.0 | 6.7 | 5.3 |
| 2 | Kyrie Irving | DAL | 23.3 | 4.6 | 5.3 |
| 3 | Bradley Beal | PHX | 21.8 | 4.6 | 3.6 |
| 4 | Tyus Jones | PHX | 16.5 | 2.8 | 5.3 |
| 5 | Klay Thompson | DAL | 15.0 | 3.8 | 2.2 |
| 6 | Naji Marshall | DAL | 14.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 7 | P.J. Washington | DAL | 13.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 |
| 8 | Royce O'Neale | PHX | 13.3 | 5.3 | 2.9 |
| 9 | Quentin Grimes | DAL | 11.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| 10 | Spencer Dinwiddie | DAL | 10.8 | 2.6 | 3.4 |
| 11 | Jusuf Nurkic | PHX | 10.7 | 8.7 | 2.9 |
| 12 | Daniel Gafford | DAL | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 |
| 13 | Jaden Hardy | DAL | 7.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 14 | Monte Morris | PHX | 6.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| 15 | Ryan Dunn | PHX | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 16 | Mason Plumlee | PHX | 4.9 | 6.2 | 1.3 |
| 17 | Maxi Kleber | DAL | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 18 | Oso Ighodaro | PHX | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 |
| 19 | Josh Okogie | PHX | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 20 | Brandon Williams | DAL | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 21 | Damion Lee | PHX | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 22 | Olivier-Maxence Prosper | DAL | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 23 | Jalen Bridges | PHX | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 24 | Jazian Gortman | DAL | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 25 | Dwight Powell | DAL | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 26 | Kessler Edwards | DAL | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 27 | Markieff Morris | DAL | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.