NBA games

CLE @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
149–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE40403633149
DEN38273634135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home DEN
82% 18%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 30 33 5 6
Evan Mobley S 31 26 5 6
Darius Garland S 32 25 2 7
Jarrett Allen S 31 22 10 4
Caris LeVert 23 13 3 3
Dean Wade S 26 11 3 5
Sam Merrill 19 9 3 0
Max Strus 24 5 5 1
Georges Niang 16 3 1 3
Ty Jerome 7 2 0 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 36 27 14 13
Jamal Murray S 40 27 3 11
Michael Porter Jr. S 32 18 4 3
Peyton Watson 26 18 1 2
Christian Braun S 32 16 2 1
Russell Westbrook S 30 11 4 7
Julian Strawther 23 11 2 0
DeAndre Jordan 11 4 7 1
Hunter Tyson 6 3 1 0
Zeke Nnaji 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Russell Westbrook · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Russell Westbrook makes 1-foot layup (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
2 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
12%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
5 Christian Braun DEN
10%
6 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
7 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
8 Darius Garland CLE
9%
9 Sam Merrill CLE
8%
10 Dean Wade CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
27%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.1 11.0 8.3
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.9 4.5 6.4
3 Darius Garland CLE 22.1 3.5 6.2
4 Jamal Murray DEN 22.1 4.1 6.3
5 Evan Mobley CLE 21.8 9.0 3.7
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 18.6 6.0 3.2
7 Russell Westbrook DEN 14.3 5.0 6.3
8 Caris LeVert CLE 13.3 3.2 3.8
9 Christian Braun DEN 11.1 5.1 2.2
10 Jarrett Allen CLE 10.8 8.2 1.9
11 Georges Niang CLE 9.7 4.5 1.5
12 Julian Strawther DEN 8.9 2.4 1.4
13 Sam Merrill CLE 7.6 2.1 1.9
14 Peyton Watson DEN 6.4 3.5 1.4
15 Ty Jerome CLE 6.0 2.0 2.3
16 Dean Wade CLE 5.8 4.7 1.1
17 Max Strus CLE 4.6 2.1 1.3
18 Dario Saric DEN 4.3 3.0 1.1
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.5 1.3 2.0
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.4 4.2 0.9
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.2 2.0 0.6
22 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.6 2.7 0.4
23 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.3 1.4 0.4
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.7 0.7 0.4
25 Spencer Jones DEN 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.