NBA games

MEM @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
132–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM32423028132
NO25362736124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home NO
86% 14%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 35 33 5 3
Ja Morant S 25 25 2 7
Desmond Bane S 32 18 4 8
Zach Edey S 27 14 9 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 23 13 6 4
Jaylen Wells S 32 10 2 2
Luke Kennard 20 9 4 3
Jay Huff 13 7 2 0
Brandon Clarke 19 3 4 0
John Konchar 6 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 39 35 3 4
CJ McCollum S 35 32 5 4
Dejounte Murray S 39 15 7 9
Daniel Theis 21 11 11 6
Jordan Hawkins 15 9 2 0
Brandon Boston 11 7 0 0
Yves Missi S 27 6 6 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 23 5 6 2
Herbert Jones S 28 4 5 3
Javonte Green 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach Edey · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Zach Edey makes 3-foot dunk (Ja Morant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
15%
2 CJ McCollum NO
13%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
4 Dejounte Murray NO
11%
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
6 Yves Missi NO
10%
7 Herbert Jones NO
8%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
9 Zach Edey MEM
7%
10 Trey Murphy III NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
30%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 24.0 4.9 7.2
2 CJ McCollum NO 22.3 4.5 5.0
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.8 6.6 3.2
4 Trey Murphy III NO 21.3 4.4 3.3
5 Dejounte Murray NO 20.7 6.8 8.2
6 Desmond Bane MEM 20.2 5.5 6.5
7 Herbert Jones NO 13.7 4.8 3.7
8 Zach Edey MEM 12.8 9.9 1.9
9 Brandon Boston NO 12.6 3.6 1.8
10 Yves Missi NO 12.1 10.8 1.3
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.5 3.2 1.7
12 Jordan Hawkins NO 10.3 2.9 1.4
13 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 9.7 3.2 4.3
14 Jake LaRavia MEM 9.4 4.4 2.6
15 Brandon Clarke MEM 9.1 6.5 1.5
16 Luke Kennard MEM 7.4 2.3 2.1
17 Jay Huff MEM 6.8 2.6 0.8
18 Javonte Green NO 6.1 3.5 1.0
19 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 6.0 3.7 1.2
20 Antonio Reeves NO 5.5 1.9 1.0
21 Daniel Theis NO 4.6 3.5 1.2
22 Cam Spencer MEM 4.2 1.5 1.1
23 John Konchar MEM 3.9 2.5 1.2
24 Trey Jemison III NO 2.5 2.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.