NBA games

MIN @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
113–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN22351937113
HOU21313228112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home HOU
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 36 27 8 8
Anthony Edwards S 35 24 5 3
Donte DiVincenzo 37 22 4 4
Naz Reid 24 14 3 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 29 11 4 5
Rudy Gobert S 29 7 9 0
Mike Conley S 24 3 2 2
Josh Minott 6 3 0 1
Jaden McDaniels S 20 2 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 41 38 12 1
Amen Thompson S 39 20 11 1
Fred VanVleet S 39 18 6 7
Jalen Green S 39 14 2 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 43 12 6 1
Jae'Sean Tate 16 6 6 0
Cam Whitmore 12 4 3 1
Aaron Holiday 5 0 0 1
Reed Sheppard 4 0 0 0
Steven Adams 3 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
2 Jalen Green HOU
11%
3 Julius Randle MIN
10%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
6 Amen Thompson HOU
8%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
34%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 21.8 5.9 5.1
2 Jalen Green HOU 20.1 4.4 3.0
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.0 10.3 5.8
4 Julius Randle MIN 19.6 6.9 4.9
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.3 4.5 5.1
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 15.4 4.4 2.4
7 Amen Thompson HOU 12.8 7.6 2.3
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.4 7.4 1.7
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.5 9.2 1.6
10 Naz Reid MIN 9.9 4.5 1.8
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.4 5.3 1.5
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.4 2.7 2.2
13 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.2 3.4 3.2
14 Mike Conley MIN 9.0 2.8 4.3
15 Tari Eason HOU 8.6 6.0 1.2
16 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.9 2.7 0.8
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.3 1.4 1.0
18 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.0 2.1 0.8
19 Josh Minott MIN 3.9 2.0 0.8
20 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.7 2.1 0.8
21 Jeff Green HOU 3.6 1.4 0.6
22 Leonard Miller MIN 3.5 3.0 0.4
23 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.3 0.9 1.4
24 Steven Adams HOU 3.2 4.4 0.9
25 Joe Ingles MIN 2.8 1.4 1.7
26 Jock Landale HOU 2.7 2.6 0.7
27 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 1.6 0.6 0.4
28 PJ Dozier MIN 1.5 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.