NBA games

SA @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
96–87
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA1130332296
BKN2219212587

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home BKN
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 35 19 7 4
Julian Champagnie 20 18 2 1
Keldon Johnson 27 15 6 1
Jeremy Sochan S 34 12 14 3
Devin Vassell S 34 10 6 5
Harrison Barnes S 22 9 2 0
Stephon Castle 19 6 2 1
Chris Paul S 32 5 2 5
Tre Jones 17 2 2 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keon Johnson S 37 25 4 3
Shake Milton S 34 16 3 12
Tyrese Martin 19 13 6 0
Jalen Wilson S 39 11 2 3
Nic Claxton S 33 11 10 0
Noah Clowney 24 5 5 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 13 4 6 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 27 2 9 0
Reece Beekman 14 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keon Johnson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Keon Johnson makes 21-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
14%
2 Jeremy Sochan SA
13%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
12%
4 Keon Johnson BKN
10%
5 Devin Vassell SA
10%
6 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
8 Chris Paul SA
8%
9 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
18%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.2 10.6 5.2
2 Cameron Johnson BKN 23.2 4.7 3.9
3 Jeremy Sochan SA 16.5 8.9 3.0
4 Devin Vassell SA 16.1 3.6 2.7
5 Julian Champagnie SA 12.4 4.3 1.5
6 Stephon Castle SA 12.4 2.9 3.8
7 Nic Claxton BKN 12.2 7.6 1.7
8 Keldon Johnson SA 11.0 4.0 1.7
9 Noah Clowney BKN 11.0 4.0 1.3
10 Shake Milton BKN 10.9 3.2 2.1
11 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.6 3.5 1.5
12 Chris Paul SA 10.2 5.2 8.1
13 Keon Johnson BKN 9.5 3.8 1.8
14 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.1 3.3 2.1
15 Tyrese Martin BKN 8.8 3.7 1.9
16 Harrison Barnes SA 8.4 2.3 1.6
17 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.1 4.8 1.0
18 Tre Jones SA 5.3 2.2 3.6
19 Charles Bassey SA 4.9 5.6 0.5
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.5 2.3 0.5
21 Dariq Whitehead BKN 3.4 1.2 0.4
22 Jaylen Martin BKN 3.4 1.2 0.5
23 Zach Collins SA 3.3 2.3 0.9
24 Blake Wesley SA 3.1 1.1 1.5
25 Reece Beekman BKN 2.7 1.1 0.8
26 Malaki Branham SA 2.6 0.9 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.